Broker tips: Vodafone, IMPs, Lonmin

The first quarter interim management statement from Vodafone for the three months to 30 June was ahead of expectations, Killik said, with a return to organic service revenue growth driven by a strong performance in emerging markets.

Jonathan Jackson, head of equities at Killik, is encouraged that the group is maintaining capital expenditure at current levels. "At a time when other operators have been reducing investment, we believe it is essential that Vodafone invests to maintain superior network quality when demands on the network are soaring on the back of smart phone data growth. We believe the group will continue to benefit from improved market share as a result," Jackson said.

The broker remains a fan of the stock as the group "continues to evolve towards being a total communications provider, rebalancing mobile voice in mature economies with increasing revenue from broadband data services."

An implied contraction in volumes for Imperial Tobacco in the company's third quarter was disappointing, Nomura Securities believes, but confirmation of cash conversion targets by the company was a compensating factor.

Nomura said the figures imply volumes dipped by around 5% in the company's third quarter, which was "disappointing for the market given the company had previously indicated that volumes would be stable y-o-y [year-on-year] in 2H10 [second half of 2010]."

"Whilst some negative op [operating] leverage impact may make delivery of (high end) consensus EPS [earningss per share] for FY10 [fiscal 2010] a little less comfortable, we note the vols [volumes] shortfall is largely low priced/low margin. This limits the profit impact at group level and contains our FY EPS revision to less than 1%," advises Nomuraa analyst David Hayes.

The uncertainty on operational consistency will not have been helped by the weakness in volumes and Hayes would not be surprised if this led to some short term share price weakness, though confirmation of cash conversion targets should provide some support.

Nomura's recommendation remains "buy", with the share price around £1 below its 12-month price target of 2000p.

Panmure Gordon's initial reaction to third quarter production numbers from Lonmin was that the platinum miner had left itself too much to do to hit full year production targets, but the broker subsequently had a conversation with the management and has now raised its sales forecast.

Part of the apparent shortfall in production will be "filled by selling down metal in concentrate stocks (thus reducing 2010 sales), rather than increased production," Panmure analyst Alison Turner notes.

As a consequence the broker has increased its fiscal 2010 sales forecast from 655k ounces to 690k ounces, but the forecast for 2011 goes down from 770k ounces to 733k ounces.

The change in sales forecasts prompts a 2% upgrade to 2010 estimated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) but the 2011 EBITDA forecast is cut back by 7%.

The broker remains a seller of the stock and has a target price of 1100p.