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Next week on the stock market

We take a look at what to expect from a selection of FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and selected other companies reporting next week.

Important notes

This article isn’t personal advice. If you’re not sure whether an investment is right for you please seek advice. If you choose to invest the value of your investment will rise and fall, so you could get back less than you put in.

Among the companies reporting next week;

  • Glencore will reveal how higher commodity prices impacted the second half.
  • Barclays’ bad loan provisions will serve as a bellwether for the post-coronavirus economic recovery.
  • Primary Health Properties should report another strong run of net rental income.

FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and selected other stocks scheduled to report next week

15-Feb
BHP Group* Half Year Results
16-Feb
Glencore** Full Year Results
Safestore First Quarter Trading Statement
17-Feb
British American Tobacco* Full Year Results
Hochschild Mining Full Year Results
Plus500 Full Year Results
Rio Tinto* Full Year Results
The Renewables Infrastructure Group Full Year Results
18-Feb
Barclays* Full Year Results
Barrick Gold* Full Year Results
Hays Half Year Results
Indivior Full Year Results
KAZ Minerals Full Year Results
Moneysupermarket Full Year Results
Nestle* Full Year Results
Primary Health Properties* Full Year Results
Smith & Nephew Full Year Results
19-Feb
Natwest Group* Full Year Results
SEGRO Full Year Results
TBC Bank Group Full Year Results

*Companies on which we will be writing research.

**Factual only update provided

Glencore – Nicholas Hyett, Equity Analyst

Glencore has announced a new CEO since we last heard from them. Ivan Glasenberg will be retiring in the first half of 2021 after 19 years at the helm, and will be replaced by Gary Nagle, who is currently head of Glencore’s coal business. Nagle has been at Glencore since 2000, so it’s unlikely he’ll make radical changes to the group. However, the new man will have his ideas.

Glencore had a tough first half in 2020 as lower commodity prices led the group to write down the value of some assets and drove a $2.6bn loss. However, key commodity prices have since jumped, so we expect the group to have had a better second half.

Dividends have been shelved until the group sorts its balance sheet out, which means reducing net debt to below $16bn. Management thought they would manage it by the end of 2020, suggesting dividends could return this year. However, nothing is guaranteed and it will be worth reading management’s comments with care.

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Barclays – Nicholas Hyett, Equity Analyst

With regulators lifting their ban on bank dividends and Barclays delivering resilient third quarter results despite pandemic stresses, shareholder returns will take centre stage next week. However, there are reasons to think management might take a cautious approach to cash leaving the business.

The number of loans written off because the borrower can’t repay will be in the spotlight. The value of new non-performing loans fell 63% between Q2 and Q3 and it will be interesting to see how that figure has responded to new lockdowns. At last check, the bank was prepared for 12.2% of its unsecured lending portfolio to default. If the figure continues to balloon in 2021, it’s an indication that the bank sees more economic pain ahead.

Barclays has also struggled with declining interest income as the bank’s mix of loan types shifted and low interest rates squeezed profitability. The result has been a net interest income decline of 11.1%. We don’t see a way out of this dilemma as interest rates are expected to remain low well into the future, but we’ll be keen for an update on whether borrowing behaviour has changed.

The big question will be whether the flurry of market activity we saw over the past year was enough to offset some of the weakness in lending. Barclays benefitted from an increase in trading volumes over the past year – income from the group’s investment banking arm rose 24%, accounting for over half of the bank’s total revenue.

See the Barclays share price, charts and how to deal

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Primary Health Properties – Sophie Lund-Yates, Equity Analyst

PHP’s acquisition of management function, Nexus Tradeco, back in December 2020 was partly funded by the £140m placing last July, and diluted net asset value by around 3%. But we should find out if the deal’s on track to reap the intended benefits next week. The margin-accretive rationale of the deal could mean an enhanced dividend for shareholders. Remember though, no dividend is ever guaranteed.

Looking at the core business, we think it’s fair to expect a set of reasonably sturdy results, although there are of course no guarantees. Demand for top quality primary care facilities has only been strengthened by the pandemic. Bar any unexpected shocks to the system, we should be looking at another run of strong net rental income growth – this grew 20.4% at the half year.

Another thing to look at is the loan-to-value ratio (LTV). The upper limit has been cut to 50% LTV, and it would be good to see the group staying well within this target. We’re not overly concerned by debt levels at this point, but LTV is still a bit high by industry standards.

See the Primary Health Properties share price, charts and how to deal

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Unless otherwise stated estimates are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by Refinitiv. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Past performance is not a guide to the future. Investments and income they produce can rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss.

This article is not advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. No view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment. This article has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is considered a marketing communication. Non-independent research is not subject to FCA rules prohibiting dealing ahead of research, however HL has put controls in place (including dealing restrictions, physical and information barriers) to manage potential conflicts of interest presented by such dealing. Please see our full non-independent research disclosure for more information.


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    Important notes

    This article isn’t personal advice. If you’re not sure whether an investment is right for you please seek advice. If you choose to invest the value of your investment will rise and fall, so you could get back less than you put in.

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