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Next week on the stock market

What to expect from a selection of FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and selected other companies reporting next week.

Important notes

This article isn’t personal advice. If you’re not sure whether an investment is right for you please seek advice. If you choose to invest the value of your investment will rise and fall, so you could get back less than you put in.

Among the companies reporting next week:

  • Heineken will tell us whether forecasts have changed over the last few months.
  • Netflix reveals its first set of numbers in what is set to be a crucial year.
  • Taylor Wimpey should be operating in the top end of guidance as the pent up demand drives a surge in the housing market.

FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and selected other stocks scheduled to report next week

Coca-Cola Company* Q1 Results
Energean Full Year Results
Associated British Foods* Half Year Results
Avast Q1 Trading Statement
BHP Group Q3 Production Report
IntegraFin Holdings Q2 Trading Statement
Jupiter Fund Management Q1 Trading Statement Q1 Trading Statement
Netflix* Q1 Results
Rio Tinto Q1 Production Report
Antofagasta Q1 Production Report
Bunzl Q1 Trading Statement
Heineken* Q1 Trading Update
Hochschild Mining Q1 Production Report
Polymetal Q1 Production Report
Quilter Q1 Trading Statement
Verizon* Q1 Results
AJ Bell Q2 Trading Statement
Anglo American Q1 Production Report
Centamin Q1 Production Report
Domino's Pizza Group Q1 Trading Statement
Informa Full Year Results
Nestle* Q1 Trading Statement
Relx Q1 Trading Statement
Rentokil Initial Q1 Trading Statement
SEGRO Q1 Trading Statement
Snap* Q1 Results
Spectris Q1 Trading Statement
Taylor Wimpey* Trading Statement
No FTSE 350 Reporters

*Companies on which we will be writing research.

Heineken - William Ryder, Equity Analyst

All hail the ale! Pub gardens are back open and trading should be picking up for Heineken – at least in the UK. In truth, the UK’s not a big enough market to turn Heineken’s performance around by itself; worldwide progress against the virus is needed. Nonetheless, bars and restaurants around the world should, if all goes to plan and vaccine rollouts are successful, reopen over the course of the next year or so.

At full year results Heineken expected business to pick up in the second half of 2021, but recent trading and vaccine developments may have altered these forecasts. Any commentary on this will be essential reading.

As society normalises sales are likely to shift back away from supermarkets and shops and back to bars and restaurants. The initial disruption damaged margins, and we suspect there may be further additional costs as we reopen. While brand strength and market share measures are probably more important long term, margins still matter this year.

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Netflix – Nicholas Hyett, Equity Analyst

The only number which really matters at Netflix is subscriber growth.

2020 was a spectacular year for the streaming giant, adding 36.6m new users during the year. The group hopes to add another 6m in the first quarter of 2021 – taking the company to a total of 209.7m paying users.

New subscribers mean more cash to create new content, keeping existing subscribers happy and helping recruit new viewers. Eventually the group could reach a tipping point where new money outpaces the need for new content and it starts to generate a sustainable flow of genuinely free cash. That would be a landmark moment, marking the start of potentially rapid profit growth and Netflix has suggested it would look to return the extra cash to shareholders through share buybacks.

If that’s to happen, there’s a lot riding on 2021. Lockdowns trapped millions of people at home, boosting demand for streaming services. Netflix needs to hold onto those customers as society reopens and keep content costs under control. Both are things to watch for in Q1 results next week.

See the Netflix share price, charts and how to deal

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Taylor Wimpey – Nicholas Hyett, Equity Analyst

The big unknown ahead of next week’s trading statement is demand. Taylor Wimpey’s aggressive land-buying spree during the pandemic was, in our view, a bold strategy that could help it leapfrog competitors through a 2021 recovery.

The government’s commitment to supporting the sector by offering 95% mortgages appears to have propped the market up—March house prices rose 6.5% year-on-year.

At the full-year, management was expecting volumes to recover to 85-90% of 2019 levels this year. With the deadline for reduced stamp duty payments shifted to October, we’d expect to see the group on-track to deliver at the top end of that range. As completions rise, Taylor Wimpey should be making progress toward its medium-term margin target, between 21% and 22%. As there’s been no further disruption to construction activity, we’re expecting margins to be in-line with expectations at around 19%.

Still, cracks could be starting to form. Rising house prices are a good sign that demand is on the rise, but it could make affordability for first-time buyers tricky. That may weigh on Taylor Wimpey, whose average selling price of £288,000 caters to that group. We’re keen to hear how management sees the market panning out and whether the group’s mix of houses is prepared to withstand an uneven recovery.

See the Taylor Wimpey share price, charts and how to deal

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Unless otherwise stated estimates are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by Refinitiv. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Past performance is not a guide to the future. Investments and income they produce can rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss.

This article is not advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. No view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment. This article has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is considered a marketing communication. Non-independent research is not subject to FCA rules prohibiting dealing ahead of research, however HL has put controls in place (including dealing restrictions, physical and information barriers) to manage potential conflicts of interest presented by such dealing. Please see our full non-independent research disclosure for more information.

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    Important notes

    This article isn’t personal advice. If you’re not sure whether an investment is right for you please seek advice. If you choose to invest the value of your investment will rise and fall, so you could get back less than you put in.

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