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Next week on the stock market

What to expect from a selection of FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and selected overseas shares reporting next week.

Important notes

This article isn’t personal advice. If you’re not sure whether an investment is right for you please seek advice. If you choose to invest the value of your investment will rise and fall, so you could get back less than you put in.

First quarter results get properly underway next week in the UK and overseas. We’ll get a first look at how companies are faring in the current disruption, but both lockdowns and cost saving measures will only affect the final month of the quarter for most companies.

Nonetheless the outlook statements from these results should help investors judge whether the recent stock market rally, albeit modest, is justified or not.

Among those reporting next week:

  • Apple tells us how far it’s strayed from Q2 revenue targets
  • Questions about sales volumes and house prices will dominate Persimmon's results
  • UK bellweather Lloyds Banking Group gives us a glimpse of the state of the UK economy

FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and selected other stocks scheduled to report next week

No FTSE 350 reporters
Alphabet* Q1 Results
BP* Q1 Results
HSBC* Q1 Results
Pepsi* Q1 Results
Travis Perkins Q1 Trading Statement
Weir Group Q1 Interim Management Statement
AstraZeneca* Q1 Results
Barclays* Q1 Results
Elementis Trading Statement
Facebook* Q1 Results
Fresnillo Q1 Production Report
GlaxoSmithKline* Q1 Results
Microsoft* Q3 Results
Next * Q1 Trading Statement
Persimmon* Trading Statement
Spotify* Q1 Results
Standard Chartered* Q1 Interim Management Statement
Synthomer Q1 Trading Statement
Tesla* Q1 Results
WPP* Q1 Trading Statement
Apax Global Alpha Half Year Results
Amazon* Q1 Results
Apple* Half Year Results
ConvaTec Q1 Trading Statement
EVRAZ Q1 Trading Update
G4S Q1 Trading Statement
Glencore Q1 Production Report
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Trading Statement
Howden Joinery Trading Statement
J Sainsbury* Full Year Results
James Fisher and Sons Trading Statement
Kaz Minerals Q1 Interim Management Statement
Lancashire Holdings Q1 Trading Statement
Lloyds Banking Group* Q1 Interim Management Statement
McDonald's* Q1 Results
Reckitt Benckiser* Q1 Interim Management Statement
Royal Dutch Shell* Q1 Results
Schroders Q1 Interim Management Statement
St James's Place Q1 Interim Management Statement
Visa* Q2 Results
Royal Bank of Scotland* Q1 Interim Management Statement

*Events on which we will be writing research.

Apple – Sophie Lund-Yates, Equity Analyst

Apple warned in February that a slower than anticipated return to "normal conditions" in China meant it would be missing revenue targets this quarter. We’ll be tuning in to find out the extent of the miss. As lockdowns have since spread rapidly from Asia to other markets, it could be stark.

Away from the disruption caused by the pandemic it’s important to hear how demand is holding up. Following a period of lacklustre performance, the latest iPhone models had been resonating well with customers – which is important given the hefty $4.5bn being spent on research and development each quarter.

We’ll also be looking at Apple TV+ subscriber numbers. With millions of us stuck at home we could see a good performance from the division. Disney+ has seen 50m subscribers in the first five months after launching, so it will be interesting to see if the streaming pie’s getting bigger, or if Apple’s competitors are simply stealing pieces for themselves.

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Persimmon – Sophie Lund-Yates, Equity Analyst

On 25 March Persimmon was preparing for “a significant delay in the timing of legal completions, a rise in cancellation rates and a material slowdown in new sales”. Sales offices were being closed, and so were construction sites – although these are starting to be reopened as of 27 April. We suspect sales volumes have fallen during the lockdown, and Taylor Wimpey’s recent update lends some weight to this view. Interestingly, Taylor has managed to keep house prices steady, which is good news – even if we don’t know whether it can be sustained.

Housebuilders are very sensitive to drops in either price or volume because they tend to have a lot of money tied up in land and partially completed homes. If house prices fall far enough these can’t be sold at a profit, and this problem is compounded when volumes fall too. Persimmon generated 33.1% gross margin on new homes last year, which gives it some breathing room, but a fall in both volumes and prices can combine to hammer margins surprisingly quickly.

This means the speed of the economic recovery is of the first importance. If house prices and sales volumes bounce back quickly then the damage should be fairly limited. On the other hand, if house prices recover slowly the sector could be in trouble. Next week’s trading statement won’t tell us what house prices will look like once the lockdowns end, but it should give us firmer figures to base our analysis on.

See the latest Persimmon share price, charts and how to trade

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Lloyds Banking Group – Nicholas Hyett, Equity Analyst

Having been all but instructed to scrap their dividends by the regulator, we’ll find out what the initial impact of lockdowns has been on the UK’s banking sector next week. Here’s our check-list of questions:

  • Has the increase in demand for funding from companies led to a significant increase in lending in certain areas?
  • Have we already seen a spike in bad loans and what provisions are banks making for future defaults?
  • What’s happened to net interest margins? (This measures the difference between the interest the bank charges on loans and what it pays for funding, a fall in the Bank of England base rate is usually bad news)

There are some Lloyds specific questions too.

The performance of joint venture Schroders Personal Wealth is worth noting, especially given the currently challenging environment. We’ll also be paying particular attention to lending trends in the higher risk Credit Cards, unsecured lending and car finance divisions which have become increasingly important in recent years.

See the latest Lloyds share price, charts and how to trade

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Nicholas Hyett holds shares in Lloyds Banking Group.

Unless otherwise stated estimates, including prospective yields, are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by Thomson Reuters. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Yields are variable and not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guide to the future. Investments rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss.

This article is not advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. No view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment. This article has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is considered a marketing communication. Non-independent research is not subject to FCA rules prohibiting dealing ahead of research, however HL has put controls in place (including dealing restrictions, physical and information barriers) to manage potential conflicts of interest presented by such dealing. Please see our full non-independent research disclosure for more information.

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    Important notes

    This article isn’t personal advice. If you’re not sure whether an investment is right for you please seek advice. If you choose to invest the value of your investment will rise and fall, so you could get back less than you put in.

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