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Wednesday preview: US CPI, TUI AG in the spotlight

Tue 11 May 2021 13:41 | A A A

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(Sharecast News) - The focus in financial markets on Wednesday will be squarely on the latest consumer price inflation data due out in the States.

Consensus is calling for an acceleration in the year-on-year rate of CPI price gains from 2.6% for March to 3.6% in April - a prospect which had pushed five-year US Treasury inflation breakevens to multi-year highs.

At the core level, the pick up in CPI is expected to be more restrained, from 1.6% to 2.3%.

Nevertheless, a headline rate of 3.6%, even if part down to negative base effects, was well above the norms of the past two decades.

It also came on the back of expectations for many economies around the world to reopen and enormous economic stimulus, in the pipeline or planned, offset by an equally daunting amount of slack in labour markets, not least in the US.

On home shores meanwhile, at 0700 BST the Office for National Statistics will publish a reading for UK gross domestic product in March (consensus: 1.3% month-on-month) and a preliminary print on first quarter GDP (consensus: -1.7% quarter-on-quarter).

On the corporate side of things, UBS analyst Cristian Nedelcu anticipates that travel operator TUI AG will post second quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of €500m.

Critically, the firm is expected to gave burnt through €750m of cash during the period, excluding proceeds from disposals.

However, Nedelcu estimates that second quarter will mark a trough, with the third quarter to the end of June expected to see a sequential improvement in traffic and pre-Covid 19 cash losses slowing to €200-250m per month.

By the fourth financial year quarter, revenues are seen recovering to 85% of their pre-pandemic level, for €1.0bn of EBITDA.

Full-year cash burn meanwhile is pegged to be at €600m, helped by a positive contribution of €800m from working capital.

Wednesday 12 May


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