HL commentary as it happens

Oil extends recent losses

Oil prices traded lower this morning, extending losses as fears of oversupply overshadow looming US sanctions on Russian oil majors. With OPEC and non-OPEC producers ramping up output against a backdrop of slowing demand, sentiment remains firmly bearish heading into 2026. Geopolitical flashpoints, from tanker seizures in Gulf waters to unrest in Sudan, could inject volatility, but for now, oversupply dynamics continue to dominate the narrative.

Gold slides, alongside riskier options like Bitcoin

Gold extended its slide, underscoring a growing correlation with risk assets as it fell in tandem with equities and even speculative plays like Bitcoin, now below $90,000 for the first time in six months, as markets reassess rate cut hopes. Traditionally a safe haven, gold’s new found inability to decouple from other asset classes could tarnish its defensive role heading into year-end.

US markets flipped negative into last night’s close

The S&P 500’s Monday winning streak finally broke after starting the previous 10 weeks on the front foot, a rare run seen only three times in history. Stocks drifted lower into the close, as traders shifted to a cautious stance ahead of key catalysts - such as the delayed September jobs report on Thursday. With AI optimism colliding with uncertainty over the Fed’s next move, pre-event positioning kept risk appetite in check. Longer term investors can stick to their guns, pullbacks are never fun but are often healthy, especially in a market that’s showing signs of frothiness.

UK markets mirror Wall Street’s risk off tone

The FTSE 100 opened sharply lower, as European markets mirrored Wall Street’s risk-off tone, with investors trimming exposure ahead of a heavy week of macro and earnings catalysts. Profit-taking dominated early trade, as sentiment cooled across global equities.

Global markets are waiting on economic data from the US

Global markets are waiting on the overdue economic data from the US – which will potentially be released at the beginning of this week. During the record long shutdown, inflation and jobs data for October was not collated or released, which has left policy makers in limbo. These two data points are key for the Fed to help determine whether they continue to cut rates when they meet next month. The S&P 500 fell on Friday, following a strong start to the week, as the market digested what the lack of data might mean for the dot plot.

UK market opens slightly down after poor Friday finish

Interest rate uncertainty is not just a feature of US markets at the moment. Here in the UK, we saw rate expectations jump on Friday, following rumours that the Chancellor Rachel Reeves would not be making the much-anticipated increase to income tax in the Budget next week. UK assets performed poorly on Friday, with the FTSE 100, UK gilt market and the pound all falling in value. The FTSE 100 closed down 1.11%, and opens slightly down this morning too.

The jump in gilt yields – bond prices and bond yields have an inverse relationship – reflects market concerns that without a rise in income tax, the Budget will leave the Chancellor with insufficient headroom, which would make pro-growth spending more difficult. 10-year gilts are currently paying a yield of 4.58%, up from 4.39% last week.