HL commentary as it happens

Oil prices regain ground after five-month lows

Brent crude prices have clawed back 1.4% to around $63.6 per barrel after the escalation of anti-trade rhetoric between the US and China dragged prices to an all time low on Friday. The comments compounded ongoing concerns of a glut in the market, and a narrowing of the geopolitical risk premium. As Israel welcomes back its citizens that have been held hostage for two years in Gaza this morning, the world can only hope that this is the first step towards an enduring peace.

Gold retains safe haven crown with another all-time high

The traditional safe haven of gold has seen more robust pricing, reaching an all-time peak of $4,070 today. But, while gold does have some intrinsic value, the price has doubled in less than two years. There’s plenty of scope for a correction particularly if market fears subside. Over the long term, investors looking to protect their capital would do well to stay invested and stay diversified across a broad range of assets.

US stock futures rebound after bruising Friday

US stock futures suggest at least a partial rebound at the open after Friday saw Wall Street suffer its worst session since April’s liberation day. Traders may be banking on a similar pattern where American indices entered a six-month period of almost unbroken growth helped by a string of trade deals, and growing hopes of a soft-landing for the US economy. Strengthening of demand for AI infrastructure also had its part to play.

FTSE firm after just a small dip

Just when you think it’s safe to go back in the water Donald Trump threatens to hit China with 100% tariffs in retaliation for Beijing’s export restrictions on rare earth minerals crucial to the semiconductor industry. So far, the FTSE 100, with its broad-based multinational make-up has escaped the worst of the jitters, losing less than 1% as the story broke just before Friday’s close. The London markets continue to hold their nerve this morning with the index up slightly at the open.

It's been a more testing start to the week for the Asian markets in the eye of the storm with the tech and financials heavy Hang Seng feeling the brunt of the headwind, losing 2.7% by the afternoon.

Brent crude falls to $65 as Israel and Hamas agree truce

Oil prices have softened, reflecting an easing of the risk premium, after Israel signed off on a ceasefire agreement with terror group Hamas, brokered by Donald Trump. It’s a step in the right direction, with the release of Israeli hostages and an end to military action in Gaza set to bring relief to both beleaguered populations. But there’s still a long way to go if there’s to be a lasting peace in this multi-decade conflict. Brent crude oil prices at close to $65 per barrel remain on track for a weekly gain, with oversupply fears still dominating, despite the restraint shown by OPEC+ earlier in the week.

Investors digest Washington deadlock and Q3 earnings outlook

The great reality check otherwise known as third quarter earnings season is upon us. The overall outlook for reporters looks robust. Average earnings per share growth of 8% is expected for US large caps, up from the 7.3% forecasted at the end of June. That’s been fuelled by a record number of guidance upgrades. But one quarter’s numbers alone aren’t enough to justify the current market optimism. Rational investors need to keep at least one eye firmly on the future, so comments around the immediate and longer-term outlooks will be more important than ever. That’s particularly true for the tech giants that are fuelling the AI rally. While there's plenty of reason for optimism in the sector, the usual reasons to stay diversified haven’t gone away.

US futures up a touch

US futures are faintly up, after Wall Street lost a little steam on Thursday, with the major indices also retreating from their all-time bests. The small matter of the US government shutdown hasn’t gone away, with the Senate still stuck in deadlock after its seventh round of votes on funding proposals.

FTSE holds near 9,500

The FTSE 100 has continued its shallow downward path this morning, after retreating from yet another record high yesterday, driven by weakness in the UK banks. The sector dip related to specific regulatory and strategic themes rather than the broader health of the sector.

Oil holds steady, Sterling sags

Oil markets have reacted nonchalantly to the apparent outbreak of peace in the Middle East. Brent crude futures were barely changed at $66.36 this morning, with traders having already discounted the likelihood of a deal being reached. Sterling however is struggling, pretty much across the board against other major currencies this morning, trading lower to $1.3364 and €1.1504.

Wall Street rises, FTSE slides

News that a likely hostage returns deal and ceasefire has been agreed between Israel and Hamas helped market sentiment overnight, with both Wall Street and Asian bourses making progress. Tech shares quickly forgot about yesterday’s reasons for caution with AI leading the way. Only Hong Kong went backwards.

In London, however, the FTSE100 index is on the slide in early trade. The index is down around -0.2% at the time of writing.

US Tech hits the wall

Last night, US tech stocks ran out of steam, with many of the leading names succumbing to profit taking, sending the Nasdaq 100 index down 0.5% last night. The wider market was also dragged lower, with the S&P 500 index losing almost 0.4%.

Investors are still taking stock of some massive deals announced in the AI space in recent days. Big AI vendors have started signing deals where their clients commit to spending many billions on AI chips, but where the AI producer also invests many billion into the buyer of those chips. Some might wonder whether the buyers would be as keen to buy, were the chip producer not giving them the monies to do it with.

FTSE opens higher

The UK market has opened gently higher, with the FTSE 100 trading almost 20 points better to 9,501 at the time of writing, a new high for London’s leading index. Financials are leading the rise, with gold miners also among the leaders, unsurprisingly given gold’s new highs.

In the currencies and energy markets this morning, the dollar is strong, sending sterling down to $1.34, while Brent crude futures have rallied 60c to $66.1, firmly in the middle of oil’s trading range over the last few months.

Gold soars above $4,000

Gold is grabbing the headlines today after the yellow metal exceeded $4,000 per oz in trading last night. This latest high marks the latest stage in what has been a meteoric rise in the gold price, which has now doubled in the last two years.

Some are pointing to the ongoing US government shutdown, where Federal workers have been sent home, possibly with no pay, if overnight reports of President Trump’s intentions prove accurate. But US government shutdowns come along as often as US politicians wish them to, so why has gold been so frothy about this one? Some might point the finger towards France, where President Macron’s government is once more leaderless and unable to properly govern.

France is increasingly looking like a warning sign that the spending needs of the nation’s social democracy are outpacing its ability to write cheques. Either way, despite stock markets hitting new highs around the world in recent weeks, it looks like some investors are looking for a safe haven and chasing gold ever higher for now.