HL LIVE
HL commentary as it happens
Tuesday 21st April
Oil dips as Iran engages in another round of talks
Oil prices dipped back this morning as reports emerged that Iran will send a delegation for further talks with the US, trimming some of the geopolitical risk premium that had built up in recent sessions. That said, with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked and peace negotiations far from guaranteed, energy markets remain highly sensitive to shifting headlines, which continues to feed directly into broader equity volatility. That uncertainty keeps inflation risks in play and muddies the outlook for interest rates, reinforcing the case for ongoing market swings even as equities attempt to price in an eventual resolution.
UK labour market data shows early signs of softness
UK labour market data is starting to show early signs that higher energy costs linked to the Iran war are feeding through into business hiring plans, with payroll employment falling by 11,000 in March and job vacancies slipping from 721,000 to 711,000. Pay growth is also beginning to ease, with average earnings slowing to 3.8% and the more timely PAYE median pay measure suggesting further softening could be on the way. For investors, a loosening labour market reduces the likelihood of further interest rate hikes, which helps to firm up our view that the Bank of England will keep things on pause until the conflict plays out.
Equity markets stage a small bounce back
Equity markets look set to bounce back a touch today, with US futures pointing higher after yesterday’s oil-led selloff that saw energy stocks outperform while much of the broader market slipped. The recent yo-yoing in equity sentiment continues to be driven less by fundamentals and more by swings in oil prices, as investors try to second-guess how Middle East negotiations are progressing. Fresh talks are pencilled in, but timelines for any lasting agreement remain unclear, leaving investors caught between elevated geopolitical risk and hopes that a workable outcome will ultimately be reached – with markets showing a willingness to price in the latter. As earnings season gets underway, that backdrop could translate into a run of solid results paired with cautious outlooks, as executive teams acknowledge the potential impact of higher energy costs without committing too heavily to guidance in an environment where volatility is likely to remain a feature.
Monday 20th April
PMI and inflation data on the table
There are several big economic data points to keep an eye on, too, as markets weigh up the impact of the conflict on inflation and demand. US retail sales in March are expected to show further resilience tomorrow with a forecasted 1.3% increase. On Wednesday, expectations for UK CPI data have been moving up since the conflict broke out, and March price increases are now expected to be nudging 3.5%. Anything higher is likely to be negative for sentiment towards UK equities, but we still think domestic rates will remain on hold while the conflict continues. Attention then shifts to PMI Thursday, with headline numbers for the US, the Eurozone, and the UK providing a more forward-looking snapshot of the global economy.
Warsh testimony to the Senate in focus tomorrow
Interest rate expectations continue to bounce around, hanging on every twist and turn in the Gulf. But Kevin Warsh's testimony to the US Senate tomorrow could provide a longer-term steer on the direction of American monetary policy as the Fed chair frontrunner sets out his credentials for the role. Central bank independence and the potential for structurally lower rates as AI productivity gains start to bite are likely to be key points of focus.
Asian stocks gain, weak start for European and US markets
The rhetoric has once again intensified as attention moves towards a second round of negotiations between Tehran and Washington in Pakistan, but it's not at all clear whether these discussions will take place. Whether this impasse proves to be merely a detour on the path to a resolution remains to be seen, but more volatility would seem the most likely outcome. Asian Pacific indices were mainly up overnight, but European indices and the FTSE 100 have given back some of Friday’s gains, and US stock futures are down.
Key chokepoint closed again after weekend clashes
The path to de-escalation in the Middle East took one step forward and two steps back over the weekend. Over 20 freight vessels carrying mainly energy cargoes passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday after Iran signalled the reopening of the critical thoroughfare. But by Sunday, reports surfaced of shots being fired at a commercial vessel by Iranian forces, and the seizure by the US Navy of an Iranian freighter.
Friday 17th April
Treasury yields dips and gold rises
This wave of optimism has been enough to carry US stocks to fresh highs as the S&P 500 crosses 7,100 for the first time. The potential for a less severe inflationary oil shock has also seen 10-year Treasury bond yields fall nearly 8 basis points to 4.23%, with gold heading back up towards $4,900 per oz as interest rate expectations moderate. As of yesterday, Fed Fund Futures were pricing in just a 26% chance of a further quarter point cut in US rates this year, but in the space of 24 hours that’s now moved to 38%. Markets will want to see decisive action towards a durable peace if this shift is to be anything more than temporary.
Oil prices fall 12%
Markets have responded enthusiastically to this latest step change in co-operation, which has sent the price of Brent crude oil down by 12% to around $87, its lowest level in 6 weeks. That’s also driven some steep falls in oil stocks – which has kept the overall rally in the FTSE index limited to under 1% given the relatively high oil sector weight.
Iran declares open passage to commercial passage for remainder of ceasefire
President Trump’s social media post celebrating the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz has been confirmed by Iran’s foreign minister Seyed Abbas Aragchi. However, risks remain that things could flare up again. The US intends to maintain its blockade on Iranian ports until a final deal’s been agreed. And Iran’s pledge only extends to the end of the current ceasefire, which expires on 22 April.
Outlook for Fed rates remains murky
The US domestic economy is also showing signs of resilience, with this week’s initial jobless claims falling to 207,000 and undershooting forecasts of 215,000. The economic resilience and inflationary impact of higher energy prices mean that imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are no longer on the table. Looking to the end of the year, no change is still the most likely outcome being priced in by markets. Nonetheless, the last week has seen the probability of a quarter point cut by Christmas shift from 21% to 26%. Any further gain in confidence towards the resumption of the easing cycle would provide a further tailwind for equities. However, with geopolitical uncertainty running high investors would be wise to remain diversified across sectors and asset classes.
Brent Crude dips but Strait of Hormuz remains closed
For the oil market, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the focus, and Brent Crude prices this morning have fallen only slightly to $98, reflecting the scale of the task required to find a lasting resolution. All eyes now turn to Paris, where Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are hosting a summit of global leaders to facilitate the ‘immediate reopening of the strait.’
More peace talks possible after ceasefire on Israel’s northern border
Events in the Middle East remain the key market driver, and President Trump's overnight comments on the potential for further peace talks between the US and Iran could boost equity markets today. A ceasefire between Israel and Iranian proxy Hezbollah after Israeli/Lebanese talks in Washington provides further hope for de-escalation.
Thursday 16th April
UK GDP bounced in February, but growth is expected to slow
UK GDP delivered a stronger-than-expected bounce in February, rising by 0.5% on the month and suggesting the UK economy entered the year with more momentum than many had assumed. But forward-looking activity surveys for March point to the conflict with Iran already taking the wind out of that growth as higher energy costs begin to feed through. Growth will likely slow from here as conditions become more challenging, which is one of the reasons we expect the Bank of England to hold rates steady amid volatile energy prices rather than implement hikes.
Oil stays above $90 as Hormuz risk remains
Oil prices remain elevated above $90 a barrel after a volatile start to the week, as investors look towards a possible extension of the ceasefire between the US and Iran while weighing the chances of a broader agreement that could ultimately reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Reports suggest the US and Iran are considering extending their two-week truce to allow more time to negotiate a lasting peace deal. For now, markets appear willing to look past higher oil prices, but reopening the Strait is key to sustaining this broader risk-on appetite. In the meantime, the flow of oil and gas is still effectively cut off, paving the way for more volatility ahead.
Markets snap back with FTSE 100 and S&P 500 up on the year
Global markets have staged one of the fastest recoveries in recent memory, with both the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 now back in positive territory for the year after a bruising start to 2026. The S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high yesterday, a powerful reminder of just how quickly sentiment can turn once the outlook begins to stabilise. It reinforces a simple yet often-overlooked truth: trying to perfectly time the bottom is exceptionally difficult, even for seasoned investors. In periods of heightened volatility, as we have seen recently, the best course of action is often to stay invested and avoid trying to time the peaks and troughs.
Wednesday 15th April
IMF downgrades growth forecast for UK because of conflict but keeps in place global forecast for 2027
The macro data flow is negative this week – with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimating that the war will hamper global growth by 0.2 percentage points this year, forecasting expansion of 3.1%. The UK is set to feel the brunt of the disruption with growth predicted at 0.8% for this year, downgraded from 1.3% in the January forecast. The IMF kept in place its forecast for 2027 however, suggesting resilience to the current headwinds.
The IMF shares our base case that the war does not escalate from here, nor become increasing protracted, disrupting energy markets and supply chains into next year. We consider Trump has little appetite for the impact on US stock markets, bond markets and opinion polls – and this week’s ceasefire has brought welcome respite, however fragile. In the event that the extreme scenario does play out however, with oil at $125 a barrel into 2027, the IMF warned that inflation would be stoked and growth would weaken.
Ceasefire talks have quelled oil prices and supported stock markets despite mixed data
Our house view has remained throughout the war that the Bank of England will hold rates while Iran war is ongoing but is unlikely to hike. Comparisons with the Russia-Ukraine war – the impact on inflation in 2022 and associated rate hikes – are not comparing apples with apples. Interest rates were near zero when Russia invaded Ukraine, and sit above neutral rate today, providing buffer to the impact of elevated prices. Gilts, fixed-term cash, and actively managed bond funds look attractive in this environment.
Markets currently are looking through the war – with the S&P 500 back to pre-conflict levels after a strong session yesterday. Europe also had a strong day yesterday, which has meant some softness on the open today, a mix of some company specific news and market dynamics. The FTSE 100 has opened flat.
Where do markets go from here? Expect continued volatility, and the recent rally may be a good opportunity to take gains and rebalance where needed ahead of earnings season.