China's exports beat expectations in July, remaining a key driver of economic growth as the global AI infrastructure boom fuelled demand for high-tech goods and exporters rushed shipments ahead of higher U.S. tariffs.
The manufacturing powerhouse has been relying on external demand to sustain growth and counter tepid domestic consumption and an investment downturn, but frictions in China's relations with trading partners may prompt further protectionism in an uncertain global environment due to war in the Middle East.
China's exports expanded 23.9% year-on-year in U.S. dollar value terms in July, customs data showed on Friday, slowing from a 27% surge the previous month and compared with a 22.2% rise forecast in a Reuters poll.
Imports were up 27.5% from July last year, slowing from the 36% jump in June and in line with an expected 27.9% gain.
The United States last month banned imports of new humanoid and quadruped robots and connected power inverters from China and on Thursday imposed price floors and a 15% tariff on products made from polysilicon, the raw material used in semiconductors and solar panels that is primarily produced by China.
"The latest U.S. measures will have limited overall impact on Chinese exports due to a more diversified structure to other markets, such as Europe and ASEAN," said Gary Ng, senior Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis.
He cautioned that the measures could drag on certain sectors, and that "the growing trade imbalance can prompt more countries to impose protectionist measures."
The Chinese yuan hovered near a 3-1/2-year high and stocks gained following the data.
Resilient demand for AI-related products
Analysts expect AI demand, which drove up the prices of related goods, to underpin strong export growth in the third quarter and even the second half.
Exports of semiconductors in the first seven months almost doubled in value terms from last year, and overall high-tech exports expanded 40.7%, customs data showed.
Ceramic shipments slumped 28.3% and exports of toys fell 9.7%, in a further sign of the economy's uneven development where advanced manufacturers ride the AI boom but more traditional industries struggle because of soft demand.
China's GDP growth slowed to 4.3% in the second quarter, below Beijing's official full-year target of 4.5% to 5%.
"External demand has become increasingly important this year for the growth outlook as China's K-shaped divergence widens," said Lynn Song, chief Greater China economist at ING.
In a meeting late last month, China's top decision-makers called for a faster transition from old growth drivers to new ones, signalling priority on high-tech sectors.
Exports of cars rose more than 50% in both value terms and quantity, driven by Chinese automakers' aggressive expansion abroad as domestic demand remained subdued.
China's crude oil imports fell 24.3% year-on-year in July but rose from June's near-decade low, as cheaper barrels bought after the Strait of Hormuz reopened for a brief period in June arrived.
Ties with trading partners
Chinese officials have repeatedly pledged to expand imports and promote balanced trade, yet the country's trade surplus, on track to top $1 trillion for a second year, continued to unnerve trading partners concerned about disruptions to their own domestic industries.
China's trade surplus narrowed to $112.5 billion from $125.62 billion in June. Its trade surplus with the United States narrowed slightly to $28 billion in July from $28.86 billion the previous month.
Exports to the U.S. increased 17% from the same month last year. Outbound shipments to the European Union rose 16%, and imports from the bloc dropped 1.4%. Trade with South Korea maintained robust growth in July, with exports up 46.6% and imports up 97.8%, on high-tech demand.
Chinese exporters and U.S. importers continued to front-load shipments in July as they expected Washington's tariffs on Chinese goods to rise after the expiry of a 10% temporary global levy in late July, said Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
In July, the U.S. imposed a new 12.5% tariff on Chinese imports after the 10% levy expired, part of a broader tariff campaign targeting trading partners Washington says have failed to curb forced labour. A separate U.S. investigation into trading partners' excess capacity will likely raise tariffs further.
With exports booming and factories humming, policymakers may feel more comfortable delaying policies to boost household income and strengthen social security systems to address entrenched weakness in domestic demand.
Macquarie analysts said that Beijing's policy support for domestic consumption and the property market would remain restrained as long as exports and manufacturing could help the economy achieve policymakers' annual growth target.
(Reporting by Yukun Zhang, Ellen Zhang, Sam Li and Ryan Woo; Additional reporting by Summer Zhen in Hong Kong; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
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