China’s trade surplus surged to a record of almost $1.2 trillion in 2025, the government said Wednesday, as exports to other countries made up for slowing shipments to the United States.
China's exports rose 5.5% for the whole of last year to $3.77 trillion, customs data showed, while imports flatlined at $2.58 trillion. The 2024 trade surplus was $992 billion.
In December, China’s exports climbed 6.6% from the year before in dollar terms, better than economists’ estimates and higher than November’s 5.9% year-on-year increase. Imports in December were up 5.7% year-on-year, compared to November’s 1.9%.
Economists expect exports will continue to support China’s economy this year, despite trade friction and geopolitical tensions.
“We continue to expect exports to act as a big growth driver in 2026,” said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas.
While China’s exports to the U.S. have fallen sharply since President Donald Trump returned to office and escalated his trade war with the world’s second-largest economy, that decline has been largely offset by shipments to other markets in South America, Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.
Strong exports have helped keep China’s economy growing at an annual rate close to its official target of about 5%, while triggering alarm in countries that fear a flood of cheap imports are damaging local industries.
The head of the International Monetary Fund last month called for China to fix its economic imbalances and speed up its shift from reliance on exports by boosting domestic demand and investment.
A prolonged property downturn in China after the authorities cracked down on excessive borrowing, triggering defaults by many developers, is still weighing on consumer confidence and domestic demand.
Gary Ng, a senior economist at French investment bank Natixis, forecasts that China’s exports will grow about 3% in 2026, slightly less than the about 5% growth in 2025. He expects the trade surplus to remain above $1 trillion this year.
This article was written by Chan Ho-Him from The Independent and was legally licensed through the DiveMarketplace by Industry Dive. Please direct all licensing questions to legal@industrydive.com.