J.P. Morgan on Tuesday raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 7,600, citing AI and tech-driven earnings, just weeks after lowering its forecast, with a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran aiding sentiment.
The revised target implies an upside of about 6.9% from Monday's close of 7,109.14. The Wall Street brokerage had cut its target to 7,200 from 7,500 last month.
J.P. Morgan also hiked its annual earnings-per-share forecast for the index to $330 from $315. For 2027, it increased its EPS target to $385 from $355.
U.S. equities have rebounded from their March lows following a ceasefire in the Middle East war.
"Given the sharp rally from recent lows and a geopolitical backdrop that, while significantly de-escalated, remains in flux, there is a meaningful risk that the market enters a short-term consolidation phase before resuming its upward trajectory," J.P. Morgan said in a note.
However, the brokerage expects the index to hit nearly 8,000 by year-end if there is a quick resolution to the conflict.
A strong momentum in AI and tech stocks helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq touch record highs last week alongside expectations of robust first-quarter earnings.
"The emergence of Anthropic's Mythos has helped reignite the bullish AI trade after a shaky start to the year," J.P. Morgan said.
Anthropic unveiled its AI model 'Claude Mythos' earlier this month, but halted its release over concerns that it could expose hidden cybersecurity vulnerabilities.
The brokerage said there is still room for further upside in consensus earnings estimates, noting recent positive revisions have been concentrated in a small group of technology firms and the energy sector.
"We expect the US to remain a core long-term holding in global portfolios due to its breakthrough innovation, overall superior growth, and capital returns, even though the diversification theme and repatriation flows out of the US are likely to persist in the background," it added.
(Reporting by Kanishka Ajmera in Bengaluru; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala and Sonia Cheema)
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