Robust first quarter UK growth confirmed but 2025 weaker than first thought

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UK economic growth has been confirmed at 0.6% for the first three months of 2026, but was weaker than first thought at the end of last year, according to official figures.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) left growth unrevised for the first quarter of this year, but said gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a revised 0.1% at the end of 2025, against the 0.2% previously recorded.

Revisions to the data means growth over 2025 as a whole was 1.3%, revised down from 1.4%, and following expansion of 1% in 2024.

The figures confirm strong expansion at the start of the year before the Iran war impact.

But the most recent monthly data signalled a hit from the Middle East conflict, with the economy contracting by 0.1% in April, down from growth of 0.3% in March.

While an interim peace deal has now been agreed between the US and Iran, nearly four months of war and soaring fuel and energy costs are still expected to take their toll on growth over the year.

The Bank of England and major forecasters, such as the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, have downgraded GDP forecasts for this year because of the war.

The latest ONS figures showed real GDP per head, taking inflation into account, is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in the first three months of 2026, up by 0.7% from a year ago, though the figures showed a fall in real household disposable income of 0.8%, down sharply from a rise of 1.2% in the previous three months.

The ONS said this was due to rising taxes offsetting higher incomes, as well as inflation impacting spending power.

Households were also putting less money aside, with the household saving ratio falling 0.7 percentage points to 8.9%, driven by a fall in the contribution of savings other then pensions.

A breakdown of the GDP figures confirmed first quarter growth of 0.8% for the services sector, while the construction and production sectors both expanded by 0.2%.

Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: “Services were the main driver of growth in the latest quarter, with strength in computer programming, wholesale and advertising only partially offset by falls in rental companies and recruitment agencies.

“Production and construction also both grew overall, although construction only partly reversed its recent weakness.

“The household saving ratio continued to ease at the start of 2026 but remains above its pre-pandemic levels.”

This article was written by Holly Williams from The Independent and was legally licensed through the DiveMarketplace by Industry Dive. Please direct all licensing questions to legal@industrydive.com.

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