Cameco (CCO) Com NPV

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Cameco’s fourth quarter revenue of 1.2bn was broadly flat. 18% growth in fuel services was largely offset by a 1% decline in Uranium revenue, where strong pricing compensated for a 12% fall in volumes.

Underlying cash profit (EBITDA) increased 12% to $0.6bn boosted by strong performances in fuel services and the Westinghouse joint venture.

Annual free cash flow improved from $0.7bn to $1.1bn helped by profit growth in the core business and higher dividends from Westinghouse. 2025 also saw Cameco move to net cash of $0.2bn from a net debt position of $0.7bn.

Both Uranium and Fuel Services production is expected to remain broadly flat in 2026 as is the realised uranium price. Cameco’s share of EBITDA at Westinghouse is expected to approximately double to $0.4bn.

The annual dividend has doubled to $0.24 per share.

The shares were down 2.3% in early trading.

*Currency = Canadian Dollars

Our view

Despite previously flagged production issues Cameco had a strong finish to 2025, helped by pricing, as well as higher profits at reactor designer Westinghouse. But conservative production guidance saw the shares slip on the day.

Cameco takes a long-term view of the Uranium market meaning it’s not rushing to extract all of its reserves at once. Rather it prefers to negotiate longer-term contracts that anticipate a sustained increase in demand and growing supply shortfall.

It has several assets in attractive jurisdictions which should help it match demand as fuel requirements ramp up from a global pipeline of new reactors which include 66 units already under construction. We admire the discipline, but it means the immediate scope for higher uranium sales is limited.

However, we see the greatest scope for value creation to be sitting within the Westinghouse joint venture, underpinned by an US$80bn framework with the US government to deploy new reactors. That also raises prospect of a separate IPO of Westinghouse.

There are no guarantees, but the deal sets out a target valuation of at least $30bn, nearly seven times the price paid by the JV partners in 2023. That’s a tantalising prospect although it’s by no means a given. For now, our focus is fixed on the impact on Cameco’s financial performance.

Westinghouse already accounts for about a third of Cameco’s profits. If the agreement goes to plan, we should see a significant uplift while providing a long-term boost in demand for Cameco and Westinghouse’s other divisions.

Cameco’s position as the leading operator of Global Laser Enrichment technology for converting stockpiles of waste uranium into usable product is another exciting but early stage-growth driver to keep an eye on.

The balance sheet is strong, with cash flows in 2025 much improved, albeit with the caveat that cash receipts from Westinghouse are expected to fall in 2026. That’s paved the way for an improved albeit modest dividend program, though no shareholder returns are assured,

Cameco’s also exposed to political risk. We think policymakers will remain on a more nuclear-friendly course, but sentiment could change.

As it’s stands it looks well-placed to capitalise on the ongoing nuclear renaissance. The market’s recognised the opportunity too, with the valuation pricing in a sustained period of strong growth. We don’t think that’s unreasonable, but to move higher from here, sentiment will need further catalysts - adding pressure to execute well.

Environmental, social and governance risk

Mining companies have high ESG risk. Emissions, effluents & waste and community relations are key risk drivers in this sector. Operational carbon emissions, resource use, health and safety, labour relations, and bribery and corruption are also contributors to ESG risk.

Cameco’s overall management of material ESG issues is strong.

There is board level responsibility for overseeing ESG issues, however, ESG reporting is not in accordance with leading reporting standards. Executive remuneration is explicitly linked to sustainability performance targets. Scope 1 and 2 emissions are disclosed and carbon intensity tracks below the industry average. There are also programmes in place to reduce own emissions, with targets and audits. Cameco has not been involved is any major community relations controversies.

This article is original Hargreaves Lansdown content, published by Hargreaves Lansdown. It was correct as at the date of publication, and our views may have changed since then. Unless otherwise stated estimates, including prospective yields, are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by LSEG. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Yields are variable and not guaranteed. Investments rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss.

This article is not advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. No view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment.

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