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HL commentary as it happens
Tuesday 14th April
Brent Crude prices dip amid reports of further US-Iran negotiations
Brent Crude futures have dipped to around $99 per barrel, giving up some of Monday’s gains. This comes as reports surface that the US and Iran are considering further negotiations to secure a long-term ceasefire agreement before the current two-week truce expires. OPEC+ reported that largely as a result of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the group’s output fell by around 7.9 million barrels per day in March.
US stock futures continue to gain ground.
US stock futures moved higher this morning as, despite the breakdown in US-Iran negotiations over the weekend, there seems to remain hope that a diplomatic solution remains on the table. While it’s been a tough start to the year for investors to stomach, the bigger picture needs to be kept in mind. The S&P 500 has staged a comeback since the outbreak of the war, rallying more than 8% and is now sitting in positive territory year-to-date.
Monday 13th April
US futures down
The deadlock is also weighing on US stock futures today as investors ponder the inflationary implications of prolonged disruption to oil and gas supplies. Markets will be paying more attention than ever to the mood music provided from first-quarter earnings and more so guidance for future periods.
Brent back above $100 ahead of US blockade of Strait of Hormuz
Decisive action by the US to remove Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz is yet to restore confidence that the key transit route will re-open, and the proposed US blockade of ships heading to or from Iranian ports later today is likely to stoke tensions further as well as curb Iranian fuel exports. That’s sent Brent crude prices towards $102 per barrel this morning after they fell to around $94 on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough.
FTSE 100 slips at the open
The FTSE 100 has followed Asian markets downwards after negotiations between the US and Iran in Pakistan ended without a deal at the weekend. A cut-and-dry path towards a resolution was perhaps too much to hope for by Sunday evening, and this may be just one of the twists and turns towards an agreement, but for now, the path beyond the current ceasefire is uncertain.
Friday 10th April
Gold on track for third consecutive week of gains
Gold is set for a third consecutive weekly gain, although it has not acted as the store of wealth or shock absorber that many might have expected during the recent Middle East tensions. That is largely because interest rate expectations have been the bigger driver of price action, outweighing the typical risk-off demand. This week’s tentative ceasefire, coupled with news of talks over the weekend, has shifted rate expectations into a more favourable position for gold, helping support the latest move higher.
Oil prices remain elevated, with the Strait of Hormuz in focus
Oil prices have eased back from the highs seen earlier in the week but remain stuck in an elevated $95-100 range as supply concerns continue to dominate the outlook. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the key sticking point, with President Trump warning Iran against imposing transit fees on vessels moving through the crucial shipping lane - a concern that has also been echoed by the UAE. Shipowners are still waiting for clearer guidance on access, leaving one of the world’s most important energy arteries largely closed to traffic. Until it reopens, oil prices are unlikely to return to more stable levels, keeping inflation worries alive for investors. Getting the waterway flowing again will be a clear priority for the White House, which, despite some strongly worded social media posts, doesn’t seem to have the leverage needed to force a full reopening.
Investors take a glass-half-full view of the Middle East ceasefire
Global stock markets look set to end a volatile week on a more positive footing, with investor sentiment showing tentative signs of recovery heading into the weekend. The FTSE 100 opened broadly flat this morning, with US markets expected to follow suit later this afternoon. While the term 'ceasefire' is used somewhat loosely, there has been enough perceived de-escalation in the Middle East to ease some of the pressure on risk assets we saw earlier in the week. The prospect of in-person talks between the US and Iran over the weekend is also helping steady nerves, offering hope that diplomatic channels remain open. Taken together, investors are becoming more comfortable that, while risks remain, the broader trajectory is moving in the right direction.
Thursday 9th April
Oil gains ground after renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon
Brent Crude prices recovered some of yesterday’s sharp losses this morning, moving nearly 2% to around $97 per barrel following further Israeli strikes on Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of global crude and gas flows, remains largely obstructed, and Iranian media reports suggest that oil tanker traffic through the Strait has been suspended again following the attacks by Israel. Oil prices will likely remain elevated and choppy until a more permanent agreement is struck between all parties, and on that front, US Vice President JD Vance is set to lead a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend.
US stock futures give up some of yesterday’s gains
US stock futures slipped lower this morning, giving up some of yesterday’s gains as renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon raised questions about the durability of a fragile ceasefire agreement in the Middle East. While it’s been a tough start to the year for equity investors, the bigger picture needs to be kept in mind. The S&P 500 has already rallied more than 7% from its 30 March low and is now down less than 1% year-to-date. While progress towards a more permanent resolution in the Middle East will dominate short-term market moves, it’s earning power that drives stock prices in the long term. Some corners of the market have seen their share prices get caught up in the broader market sell-off, despite a resilient or improving earnings picture, so there’s something to be said for being greedy when others are fearful.
Wednesday 8th April
Interest rate expectations react to potential resolution
Interest rate expectations have shifted slightly following the ceasefire, bringing markets back toward the view that further US tightening is off the table. Investors are now becoming more comfortable, tentatively pricing in the potential for rate cuts to resume toward the end of this year or into early 2027. In the UK, markets are still attaching some probability to another hike, although conviction has faded meaningfully in recent sessions. We still see rate hikes as unlikely, given lingering growth concerns, with a holding pattern more probable for now. Further moves in this direction, and perhaps an eventual return to expectations of rate cuts, would be supportive of both stock markets and gold.
Oil posts double-digit drop on hopes the Strait re-opens
Oil prices have moved sharply lower as the ceasefire agreement marks the first meaningful step toward a potential resolution. News that all parties are now working toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz is another clear positive for market sentiment, even if energy markets remain cautious. There is still work to be done, though, and oil prices will likely remain elevated and choppy until there is a more permanent resolution. The return of free-flowing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, without any Iranian tolls or controls, feels essential if oil prices are going to start trending back toward levels we saw before the conflict began.
Stock markets bounce on Middle East ceasefire
Global markets are edging higher this morning as investors respond to a ceasefire in the Middle East that gives President Trump a clear off ramp and lowers the immediate risk of further escalation. The FTSE 100 has opened 2% higher, while US futures are pointing to an even larger jump when markets open later this afternoon. The S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive positive session last night, with the index now on track to record a six-day winning streak if it can hold on to pre-market gains, something not seen since October 2025.