HL LIVE
HL commentary as it happens
Wednesday 8th April
Interest rate expectations react to potential resolution
Interest rate expectations have shifted slightly following the ceasefire, bringing markets back toward the view that further US tightening is off the table. Investors are now becoming more comfortable, tentatively pricing in the potential for rate cuts to resume toward the end of this year or into early 2027. In the UK, markets are still attaching some probability to another hike, although conviction has faded meaningfully in recent sessions. We still see rate hikes as unlikely, given lingering growth concerns, with a holding pattern more probable for now. Further moves in this direction, and perhaps an eventual return to expectations of rate cuts, would be supportive of both stock markets and gold.
Oil posts double-digit drop on hopes the Strait re-opens
Oil prices have moved sharply lower as the ceasefire agreement marks the first meaningful step toward a potential resolution. News that all parties are now working toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz is another clear positive for market sentiment, even if energy markets remain cautious. There is still work to be done, though, and oil prices will likely remain elevated and choppy until there is a more permanent resolution. The return of free-flowing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, without any Iranian tolls or controls, feels essential if oil prices are going to start trending back toward levels we saw before the conflict began.
Stock markets bounce on Middle East ceasefire
Global markets are edging higher this morning as investors respond to a ceasefire in the Middle East that gives President Trump a clear off ramp and lowers the immediate risk of further escalation. The FTSE 100 has opened 2% higher, while US futures are pointing to an even larger jump when markets open later this afternoon. The S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive positive session last night, with the index now on track to record a six-day winning streak if it can hold on to pre-market gains, something not seen since October 2025.
Tuesday 7th April
Oil creeps higher, hovering at levels not seen since 2022
Oil prices are creeping higher this morning, hovering near levels not seen since 2022. Oil has effectively become the key transmission channel for broader market risk, with moves now feeding directly into everything from bond yields to equity sentiment and even gold prices as investors try to gauge how far the conflict could hit global energy supply. With Iran warning it could escalate attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure if the US targets civilian assets, oil is increasingly acting as the primary driver of volatility heading into today’s deadline.
US markets in wait-and-see mode
US stocks closed higher yesterday, but trading volumes were notably light. Normally, that might be put down to an Easter lull, but this time it looks more like investors struggling to decide how to trade the current environment. Futures are pointing to a softer open this afternoon, and we expect pressure to build on stocks as the day progresses if we move closer to Trump’s deadline without any sign of a deal or even a temporary ceasefire. Rate expectations in the US have been just as unsettled as equity markets in recent weeks, with traders now pricing in no change through 2026. The scale of recent swings means it would not be surprising to see expectations shift again later today as events unfold.
Global markets prepare for potential volatility
Global markets are bracing for a critical day as President Trump’s looming deadline keeps investors on edge, with sentiment holding up better than you might expect given the risk of escalation. European stocks had a cautious open, the FTSE 100 opened lower and US futures pointing to a dip, but these modest moves suggest investors are positioning carefully rather than fully pricing in a worst-case scenario. Either way, today has the potential to be one of the most volatile trading sessions since the conflict began, with any headlines likely to drive meaningful swings across global markets.
Thursday 2nd April
Oil reclaims $100 as uncertainty kicks in
Oil markets are higher once more, with Brent and Crude now back above $100, as traders began pricing in the growing risk of disruption to energy infrastructure across the Gulf, amid lingering uncertainty around key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Comments suggesting military operations in the region could extend for several more weeks have dampened hopes of a near-term resolution, adding a fresh geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. That’s come despite a sizeable 5.5 million barrel build in US crude inventories last week, which would typically have weighed on prices but has instead been brushed aside in the current environment.
Global markets react to Donald Trump’s live address
Global markets took a step backwards overnight after Donald Trump’s live address, with the mood shifting sharply from the cautious optimism that had been building in recent days. From a market perspective at least, the speech appeared to have the opposite effect investors were hoping for, with oil pushing higher, bond yields climbing, and equity markets falling back. Rather than offering any fresh clues on a path toward de-escalation, Trump largely repeated a familiar set of talking points that traders have already digested across social media in recent weeks.
The result is a classic risk-off move across asset classes as hopes for further progress toward de-escalation gave way to renewed uncertainty. The FTSE 100 has opened lower, US futures suggest an unwind of yesterday’s optimism, and rate hike expectations are back on the rise. For investors, this is another reminder of how sentiment can shift quickly, and of how hard it is to time entry and exit points. Being diversified and sticking to a longer-term plan is a much more sensible strategy.