HL LIVE
HL commentary as it happens
Tuesday 7th April
Oil creeps higher, hovering at levels not seen since 2022
Oil prices are creeping higher this morning, hovering near levels not seen since 2022. Oil has effectively become the key transmission channel for broader market risk, with moves now feeding directly into everything from bond yields to equity sentiment and even gold prices as investors try to gauge how far the conflict could hit global energy supply. With Iran warning it could escalate attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure if the US targets civilian assets, oil is increasingly acting as the primary driver of volatility heading into today’s deadline.
US markets in wait-and-see mode
US stocks closed higher yesterday, but trading volumes were notably light. Normally, that might be put down to an Easter lull, but this time it looks more like investors struggling to decide how to trade the current environment. Futures are pointing to a softer open this afternoon, and we expect pressure to build on stocks as the day progresses if we move closer to Trump’s deadline without any sign of a deal or even a temporary ceasefire. Rate expectations in the US have been just as unsettled as equity markets in recent weeks, with traders now pricing in no change through 2026. The scale of recent swings means it would not be surprising to see expectations shift again later today as events unfold.
Global markets prepare for potential volatility
Global markets are bracing for a critical day as President Trump’s looming deadline keeps investors on edge, with sentiment holding up better than you might expect given the risk of escalation. European stocks had a cautious open, the FTSE 100 opened lower and US futures pointing to a dip, but these modest moves suggest investors are positioning carefully rather than fully pricing in a worst-case scenario. Either way, today has the potential to be one of the most volatile trading sessions since the conflict began, with any headlines likely to drive meaningful swings across global markets.
Thursday 2nd April
Oil reclaims $100 as uncertainty kicks in
Oil markets are higher once more, with Brent and Crude now back above $100, as traders began pricing in the growing risk of disruption to energy infrastructure across the Gulf, amid lingering uncertainty around key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Comments suggesting military operations in the region could extend for several more weeks have dampened hopes of a near-term resolution, adding a fresh geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. That’s come despite a sizeable 5.5 million barrel build in US crude inventories last week, which would typically have weighed on prices but has instead been brushed aside in the current environment.
Global markets react to Donald Trump’s live address
Global markets took a step backwards overnight after Donald Trump’s live address, with the mood shifting sharply from the cautious optimism that had been building in recent days. From a market perspective at least, the speech appeared to have the opposite effect investors were hoping for, with oil pushing higher, bond yields climbing, and equity markets falling back. Rather than offering any fresh clues on a path toward de-escalation, Trump largely repeated a familiar set of talking points that traders have already digested across social media in recent weeks.
The result is a classic risk-off move across asset classes as hopes for further progress toward de-escalation gave way to renewed uncertainty. The FTSE 100 has opened lower, US futures suggest an unwind of yesterday’s optimism, and rate hike expectations are back on the rise. For investors, this is another reminder of how sentiment can shift quickly, and of how hard it is to time entry and exit points. Being diversified and sticking to a longer-term plan is a much more sensible strategy.
Wednesday 1st April
The latest British Chambers of Commerce business confidence survey shows a dip even before the Iran war
The double whammy of energy and labour costs rising has also impacted business confidence, the British Chamber of Commerce quarterly economic survey reveals. Surveyed before the outbreak of war in Iran, businesses were divided on whether the next 12 months would prove positive; as today’s minimum wage and national living wage hikes came into effect, and policy uncertainty weighed on investment decisions.
In recent years, UK businesses have faced rising energy and input costs, an increase in employer NICs contributions as well as wage increases. Despite these domestic headwinds it is worth noting that the FTSE 100 had one of its best years on record in 2025 – rallying more than 20% and outperforming even the S&P 500. The international nature of the UK stock market, which gets 70% of its revenues from overseas, as well as sector biases towards banking, defence and oil and gas firmed helped buoy the market. A reminder to investors that while domestic policy matters for GDP growth and economic stability, global factors play a much biggest part in determining asset price returns.
The IPPR reveals that the UK is lagging G7 peers when it comes to business investment
The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) has revealed that UK businesses invest around 11% of GDP annually, less than all the other G7 nations bar Canada. This lack of investment is expected to impact both productivity and the growth potential of businesses and the economy. It is particularly acute in the manufacturing sector, where we are nearly 50% behind the rest of the G7. This productivity lag is a long-term trend for the UK, which has struggled to keep pace with peers following the global financial crisis, compounded by Brexit. Budget uncertainty over the past two years has also slowed business decisions, as have rising energy and labour costs – even before the war in Iran.
Asia markets have continued the S&P 500 optimism, rising on hopes of the Middle East war ending
Markets paint an optimistic picture this morning – choosing to believe the optimism from the White House that the war in Iran will be over in a couple of weeks. US President Donald Trump yesterday announced that he saw the war ending within a couple of weeks, and that he would be addressing the nation with further details later today.
This was enough to propel the S&P 500 into a relief rally, up 2.9%, the best day for the market since May last year. Asian markets have continued the optimism early today, with the Hang Seng in Hong Kong up nearly 2%, and the Nikkei in Japan jumping 4.56%.