HL LIVE
HL commentary as it happens
Friday 19th December
Brent crude sticks below $60.
Brent Crude prices have retreated a little further beneath the $60 mark, down nearly 20% year to date. The losses might have been greater still if US sanctions against Venezuela and the prospect of tighter measures on Russian exports weren’t in play. For now, it’s good old supply and demand that’s driving prices, with increasing production and jitters around the Chinese growth outlook weighing on traders’ minds.
Benign US inflation data taken with large pinch of salt.
On the face of it, cooler than expected CPI of 2.7% for November extended an olive branch to American doves – hoping for a rate cut. However, with government agencies boarded up for much of that period, the number was based on incomplete datasets, and, after an initial dip, short term Treasury yields ended up broadly where they started. The major US stock indices all finished up on the day, with big tech rebounding amidst continued volatility.
Bank of Japan raises rates, after UK cuts and ECB holds.
The FTSE is down this morning after a small gain yesterday. The Bank of England cut rates as expected, but with the decision only carried by one vote, the case for further cuts is far from clear. This was echoed by a rate hold in the Eurozone coupled with an upgrade for the region’s growth outlook for both 2025 and 2026. Overnight, Japan’s central bank has increased borrowing costs to a 30 year high of 0.75%.
Thursday 18th December
Oil rebounds from a near five-year low
Brent oil rose back above $60 a barrel, helped by rising tensions that could make it harder to move oil around the world. The US is tightening the net on oil linked to Venezuela, and is also weighing tougher action on Russia, both of which could squeeze supply. In the US, stockpiles fell again last week, which also gave prices a lift, even as petrol and diesel supplies increased.
US markets set to open higher
US markets briefly edged higher yesterday afternoon before sliding into the close for a fourth straight daily drop in the S&P 500. The biggest drag came from big tech and chipmakers, as investors took profits and shifted money toward steadier areas like energy, basic goods and materials.
US futures are pointing to a brighter start this afternoon, with stocks set to open higher. With softer jobs data now behind us, the spotlight turns firmly to today’s inflation reading, which could set the tone for where markets head next.
Investors wait for Bank of England decision
A small lift for the FTSE 100 at the open, but the wider European mood looks jumpy as investors wait for a packed day of central‑bank decisions. In the UK, the Bank of England is widely expected to cut rates by a quarter of a percent to 3.75%, helped by cooling inflation and a softer economy. But this is unlikely to be a full sweep, with some members expected to take a more cautious stance, and further moves in the new year will likely be slow and cautious.