HL LIVE
HL commentary as it happens
Thursday 9th April
Oil gains ground after renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon
Brent Crude prices recovered some of yesterday’s sharp losses this morning, moving nearly 2% to around $97 per barrel following further Israeli strikes on Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of global crude and gas flows, remains largely obstructed, and Iranian media reports suggest that oil tanker traffic through the Strait has been suspended again following the attacks by Israel. Oil prices will likely remain elevated and choppy until a more permanent agreement is struck between all parties, and on that front, US Vice President JD Vance is set to lead a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend.
US stock futures give up some of yesterday’s gains
US stock futures slipped lower this morning, giving up some of yesterday’s gains as renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon raised questions about the durability of a fragile ceasefire agreement in the Middle East. While it’s been a tough start to the year for equity investors, the bigger picture needs to be kept in mind. The S&P 500 has already rallied more than 7% from its 30 March low and is now down less than 1% year-to-date. While progress towards a more permanent resolution in the Middle East will dominate short-term market moves, it’s earning power that drives stock prices in the long term. Some corners of the market have seen their share prices get caught up in the broader market sell-off, despite a resilient or improving earnings picture, so there’s something to be said for being greedy when others are fearful.
Wednesday 8th April
Interest rate expectations react to potential resolution
Interest rate expectations have shifted slightly following the ceasefire, bringing markets back toward the view that further US tightening is off the table. Investors are now becoming more comfortable, tentatively pricing in the potential for rate cuts to resume toward the end of this year or into early 2027. In the UK, markets are still attaching some probability to another hike, although conviction has faded meaningfully in recent sessions. We still see rate hikes as unlikely, given lingering growth concerns, with a holding pattern more probable for now. Further moves in this direction, and perhaps an eventual return to expectations of rate cuts, would be supportive of both stock markets and gold.
Oil posts double-digit drop on hopes the Strait re-opens
Oil prices have moved sharply lower as the ceasefire agreement marks the first meaningful step toward a potential resolution. News that all parties are now working toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz is another clear positive for market sentiment, even if energy markets remain cautious. There is still work to be done, though, and oil prices will likely remain elevated and choppy until there is a more permanent resolution. The return of free-flowing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, without any Iranian tolls or controls, feels essential if oil prices are going to start trending back toward levels we saw before the conflict began.
Stock markets bounce on Middle East ceasefire
Global markets are edging higher this morning as investors respond to a ceasefire in the Middle East that gives President Trump a clear off ramp and lowers the immediate risk of further escalation. The FTSE 100 has opened 2% higher, while US futures are pointing to an even larger jump when markets open later this afternoon. The S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive positive session last night, with the index now on track to record a six-day winning streak if it can hold on to pre-market gains, something not seen since October 2025.
Tuesday 7th April
Oil creeps higher, hovering at levels not seen since 2022
Oil prices are creeping higher this morning, hovering near levels not seen since 2022. Oil has effectively become the key transmission channel for broader market risk, with moves now feeding directly into everything from bond yields to equity sentiment and even gold prices as investors try to gauge how far the conflict could hit global energy supply. With Iran warning it could escalate attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure if the US targets civilian assets, oil is increasingly acting as the primary driver of volatility heading into today’s deadline.
US markets in wait-and-see mode
US stocks closed higher yesterday, but trading volumes were notably light. Normally, that might be put down to an Easter lull, but this time it looks more like investors struggling to decide how to trade the current environment. Futures are pointing to a softer open this afternoon, and we expect pressure to build on stocks as the day progresses if we move closer to Trump’s deadline without any sign of a deal or even a temporary ceasefire. Rate expectations in the US have been just as unsettled as equity markets in recent weeks, with traders now pricing in no change through 2026. The scale of recent swings means it would not be surprising to see expectations shift again later today as events unfold.
Global markets prepare for potential volatility
Global markets are bracing for a critical day as President Trump’s looming deadline keeps investors on edge, with sentiment holding up better than you might expect given the risk of escalation. European stocks had a cautious open, the FTSE 100 opened lower and US futures pointing to a dip, but these modest moves suggest investors are positioning carefully rather than fully pricing in a worst-case scenario. Either way, today has the potential to be one of the most volatile trading sessions since the conflict began, with any headlines likely to drive meaningful swings across global markets.