HL LIVE
HL commentary as it happens
Wednesday 10th June
Oil flat at around $88 a barrel despite US and Iran exchanging fire
From the Fed’s perspective, the good news is that WTI remains relatively flat at $88 a barrel despite the US and Iran exchanging fire overnight after the downing of an American helicopter overnight. That’s towards the lower end of where oil prices have been since the war in Iran started.
US stock market set to open flat
The US stock market looks set to open broadly flat today, with S&P futures down 0.3%. The US recovered a lot of lost ground on Tuesday afternoon, having fallen around 3% in the morning.
US inflation numbers later today
US May inflation data is due out later today, with economists expecting both core and headline inflation to tick up. Consensus is for headline CPI inflation to reach 4.2%, which would be the highest it’s been since April 2023, and following on from strong jobs data would put more pressure on the Fed to think about raising interest rates. The US central bank is stuck between a rock and a hard place, with the President likely to take a dim view of rate rises, but higher oil prices are steadily pushing up prices across the economy.
Tuesday 9th June
UK retail sales rebound strongly
UK retail sales rose 3.7% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis in May, comfortably beating expectations of a modest 0.6% increase and marking the strongest growth since April 2025. The rebound follows a sharp 3.4% decline in April, with spending boosted by warm weather and early bank holiday activity. Food sales climbed 3.9%, helped by barbecue demand over the holiday period, while non-food categories, including clothing, outdoor goods, and home products were up 3.5% as consumers leaned into summer spending. However, the picture wasn’t uniformly strong. Travel spending fell 5.8% for a third straight month, with airline expenditure down 12.9%, pointing to continued pressure on discretionary big-ticket spending. Barclays noted that around two-thirds of consumers are adjusting their finances amid broader economic uncertainty, with concerns ranging from rising living costs to geopolitical tensions.
FTSE opens down 0.4%
The FTSE 100 has opened down 0.4%. While US markets staged a partial recovery overnight, investors remain cautious after the sharp selloff at the start of the week. The mood is one of tentative stabilisation rather than outright confidence, with attention still firmly on the outlook for AI valuations and interest rate expectations.
Monday 8th June
US treasury yields at 2-week high on signs of US labour market breakout
US 10-year treasuries are nudging 4.6% today following a blowout jobs report on Friday. Nonfarm payroll increases of 172,000 came in 100% above analyst expectations, raising fears that the US economy is overheating. That’s certainly the view debt markets have taken, with yields adding around 0.2 percentage points since the report broke and odds moving in favour of a quarter-point rate hike from the Fed by October. However, there are some signs that the current strength in hiring is more structural than cyclical. The beat wasn’t accompanied by an acceleration in wage growth.
Furthermore, both labour market participation and unemployment were flat at 61.8% and 4.3% respectively, suggesting that at least some of Friday’s beat came from supply constraints rather than excess demand. Much of the strength came from local government and health care, both sectors which have been considered under-staffed for some time, with the latter also seeking to fill a skills shortage. Neither sector is typically driven by credit-fuelled consumer enthusiasm. The same can’t be said for leisure and hospitality, which saw the biggest hiring spree last month. In this case however, the imminent kick-off of the FIFA World Cup on Thursday is likely to be a key driver. Longer term, the bull hypothesis is that productivity gains from AI can support job growth. While bots may step into some roles, increased productivity, faster workflows, and new products and services could drive underlying improvements in the labour market.
Oil prices spike as Middle East crisis enters 100th day
Brent crude oil prices have reversed most of last week's falls, rising nearly 5% to over $97 per barrel. The Iran crisis has entered its 100th day, and despite President Trump’s continued insistence that a deal to end the conflict and reopen oil transit routes is close, the weekend saw heavy exchanges of fire between Israel, Iran and Iranian proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as Iranian strikes against Kurdish targets in Iraq.
FTSE 100 opens down
The FTSE 100 has opened down 0.3% to 10,333 points, mirroring weakness in overseas equity markets, which have been weighed down by fears of higher interest rates and an escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
Friday 5th June
US jobs report in focus today
The main data release today is the US non-farm payrolls report, due early afternoon, UK time. Markets are anticipating an increase in non-farm payrolls of 85,000, and any significant deviation from this number has the potential to change how the US Federal Reserve might alter interest rates. The Fed has a dual mandate to keep prices stable (that is, keep inflation low and predictable) and maintain labour force participation as full as possible without triggering inflation.
FTSE opens flat; quiet UK corporate calendar
The FTSE 100 is trading slightly up. The tone remains cautious, with global macro and tech sentiment continuing to set the pace rather than domestic developments. With less than two weeks to go until the Makerfield by-election, and with Andy Burnham confirming he will run in any Labour leadership contest, the focus may change. The latest opinion poll has Labour on 49% and Reform on 40%.
Thursday 4th June
NASDAQ and S&P futures fall
US stock futures are down this morning after Wall Street backed off from record highs yesterday. Most of the weakness came from big tech shares, with healthcare and consumer staples enjoying a rally as investors sought to top up on defensive positions.
Brent crude prices fall towards $97 per barrel as Trump insists deal is still in play
Oil traders appear to be holding on to hopes that the current situation will be transient rather than permanent. Brent Crude prices are down slightly at close to $97 per barrel. While the Strait of Hormuz remains technically closed, around 10% of normal traffic volumes are still making it through. Meanwhile, President Trump has made further suggestions that a deal could be reached within days.
OECD - strong outlook takes edge off disruption threat
The OECD has called the Middle East disruption the dominant force in its latest economic outlook. The report paints a relatively strong backdrop, with “output boosted by strong AI-related investment, production and trade, lower tariff barriers and supportive financial and fiscal conditions.” So, while global growth forecasts for this year have been revised downwards from 3.4% to 2.8%, 2027 forecasts have been held at 3.1%. However, its prolonged disruption scenario sees pressure on both inflation and growth, with Asian energy importers likely to feel the worst of it. In this scenario, global growth is set to turn negative by the end of 2026 before recovering over the course of 2027.