HL commentary as it happens

Brent crude inches back above $60 per barrel

Progress towards a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine in this long-running human tragedy could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian fossil fuels. However, markets have seen numerous false dawns before and Brent crude prices have nudged back above the $60 per barrel mark, helped by a surprise fall in weekly US oil inventory holdings.

2026 earnings growth forecast to accelerate.

US Stocks are at close to record highs as we head towards fourth quarter earnings season. Next week kicks off with the banks, where a strong finish for IPOs, M&A and trading is likely to have boosted investment banking revenues. Across the wider market, Q4 estimates have been steadily rising since September, with average earnings growth for the S&P 500 up from 7.2% to 8.3% according to the latest Factset earnings insight.

US Stock futures ease ahead of key jobs data, with wage inflation expected to come in flat

US stock futures are down today, with a focus firmly on the first jobs data of 2026. Initial jobless claims are expected to have risen slightly from the previous week, to 213,000, still a relatively benign number compared to last year’s weekly average. A stabilising labour market puts less pressure on the Fed to take a knife to rates, but the political will to do so remains ever present. Presently however, markets are betting on June as the most likely moment for the first cut of 2026. Inflation remains the elephant in the room, with the recent Washington shut down delaying and distorting price data.

Unit labour costs are one key forward indicator and if today’s numbers come in flat, as forecast, that should give some confidence to the notion that the US Economy isn’t overheating. If economic growth can be driven by productivity rather than prices, that’s a strong foundation for long-term stability. Non-farm productivity is expected at 4.9%, up from a previous read of 3.3%. If artificial intelligence can live up to its promises, there could be more to come, but the speed and size of these gains remains to be seen.

FTSE set for further profit-taking after yesterday’ losses in miners and oil companies

Some further profit taking by investors in the FTSE 100 looks likely this morning, after the index lost some of its shine on Wednesday following a pull-back in precious metal and oil prices. But at over 10,000 points, the index remains over 20% higher than it was this time in 2025, despite the unpredictable start to the geopolitical year.

Asian and European markets opened down

Asia markets are down today after a strong start to the year, and European markets have opened down too – including the FTSE 100. Some of this will be profit taking, Asian markets had benefited from their best ever start to a year and UK and European stocks have had strong momentum. Gold and silver – both of which hit new record highs at the end of last year – have also fallen, having started the week strong following Monday’s events.

Trump’s erratic approach to tariffs and global diplomacy, and the threat of Russia having its assets seized by global players supportive of Ukraine, has made gold a more attractive neutral reserve for many global central banks. Goldman Sachs estimates that central banks will target around 20% of reserves in the precious metal, and China is currently at around 8%, which – alongside continued geopolitical uncertainty – should prop up the gold price, though we do not expect the returns of 2024 and 2025 to follow this year.

US and UK stock markets hit record highs yesterday

US and UK stock markets hit record highs yesterday – though the FTSE has opened down today as geopolitical concerns bubble. Oil majors and defence stocks, buoyed by the US operation in Venezuela on Monday, helped boost the FTSE 100 and the S&P 500 markets – with the FTSE 100 posting its best day in six months.

This morning paints a more muted picture, as the dust settles and expectations on tailwinds clarify. The market is additionally digesting alarmist threats from the White House overnight – with US President, Donald Trump, emboldened by his success in Venezuela now setting his sights on Greenland. Time will tell if this is just rhetoric, but today’s political focus will be a search for certainty among Europe and NATO members as to what this means for global discord.

Copper hits new highs

Copper pushed through $6 a pound to fresh record highs, driven by expectations that global supply will tighten further this year, and worries that potential new US tariffs on refined metals could squeeze major hubs like London and Shanghai. Demand remains solid too, with copper right at the heart of power‑grid upgrades, renewable energy build‑outs and the surge in data‑centre construction. It’s a backdrop that plays neatly into the hands of the big miners, many of whom have been pivoting hard toward copper in recent years and now look well positioned to benefit from prolonged higher prices.

Oil prices ease after a surprise rise yesterday

Oil eased back this morning with Brent around $61.60 a barrel, giving up a bit of Monday’s surprise jump as traders weighed what US pressure on Venezuela really means for supply. With the country pumping less than 1% of the world’s oil after years of underinvestment, any major near-term disruption looks more bark than bite. Adding to the softer tone, Saudi Arabia cut prices to Asia again, and OPEC+ stuck to its cautious stance, keeping supply steady in a market that already feels well stocked.

Global equities on the front foot

Global equities are starting the day on the front foot, with markets largely brushing aside the uncertainty stirred up by US moves in Venezuela. European and UK indexes are trading higher, and US futures are pointing to a positive open, hinting at a broadly upbeat mood to kick off the day.