HL LIVE
HL commentary as it happens
Thursday 15th January
Brent Crude prices pull back as Trump tones down the rhetoric on Iran
Brent crude oil prices are down over 3% to about $64.4 per barrel after five consecutive rises. Traders are paying close attention to the unfolding drama on the streets of Tehran. Donald Trump appears to have pulled back from the brink of military intervention. With expectations of an oil surplus this year remaining high, speculation-driven gains can be quickly reversed. But with events moving so quickly, oil traders should prepare for more volatility.
US stock futures flat after wholesale prices muddy the inflation outlook
US futures are showing little direction today after a weak Wednesday on Wall Street. Mixed numbers for the US banks dragged on financials and the question of tech trade with China dragged on semiconductor names.
Services drive better than expected UK GDP
UK GDP grew 0.3% in November compared to forecasts of just 0.1% with services doing much of the heavy lifting. Add yesterday’s comments from the Bank of England’s Alan Taylor that inflation is on track to reach target levels of 2% by the middle of the year, and the case for a soft landing would look to be holding the high ground. But it’s not all good news with today’s economic output figures revealing broadly flat production numbers and a 1.1% fall in construction activity.
FTSE 100 starts day flat after another record close
The FTSE 100 has taken a pause this morning after reaching a record close of 10,184.35 points on Wednesday. The mining sector has had a large part to play in the strong start to the year, with metal prices on the march. Improving economic news is also adding to the positive mood.
Wednesday 14th January
Oil snaps back after four-day rally
Oil prices have met their match with Brent down 0.7% this morning, ending a four-day rally as Venezuela resumed exports under a new deal with the US. The pullback was limited, though, with prices still near three-month highs amid mounting supply risks from Iran, where protests and cancelled talks with Washington threaten roughly 3.3 million barrels per day of output.
US markets react to well-behaved inflation
US markets had a choppy session last night. Well-behaved inflation gave an early boost, with core CPI coming in at 2.6% versus the 2.7% expected, supporting hopes for at least two rate cuts this year. Bond yields dipped on the news, but equities couldn’t hold their morning gains, finishing the day mostly flat, as the S&P closed just shy of a record high.
FTSE 100 opens higher
UK stocks opened higher this morning, tracking a reasonably positive start across most of Europe. With few major catalysts on the calendar, trading is likely to stay range-bound, as investors digest results from today.
Tuesday 13th January
Brent Crude at $64 as net closes in on Iranian exports
Brent crude is holding onto recent gains as it hovers just above $64. The threat from the White House of a 25% tariff on any country that does business with Iran coupled with the potential for military action has raised concerns about the supply outlook from the world’s fifth largest producer.
US stock futures unmoved after record close
Despite a poor day for financials, US stocks managed to close out at another record high. Futures are pointing to an uneventful open after the bell rings on Wall Street. Donald Trump’s efforts to force a more doveish hand from the Fed have so far proved ineffective. His quest for looser monetary conditions has now brought US credit card lending rates into the crossfire sending a shudder through the sector.
FTSE 100 opens flat
Equity markets are continuing to thrive in 2026 in the face of mounting geopolitical tension. After a tentative open, the FTSE remains just a hair’s breadth from its all-time best. Mining stocks have been the key driver of the uplift so far in January, but today UK Plc is back under the microscope, with updates from housebuilders, too.
Monday 12th January
UK & US Financials: Trump calls for credit card cap
Banking stocks are under pressure this morning, with the sector trading lower across the board as investors weigh the fallout from Donald Trump’s call for a one-year cap on credit‑card interest rates.
A 10% ceiling on credit‑card rates, roughly half today’s average interest rate, would upend the basic economics of the industry, forcing lenders to rethink how they manage risk and who they’re willing to lend to. Most banks would respond by cutting credit limits, closing riskier accounts, and scaling back rewards programmes, because they simply couldn’t cover losses at that price point. Card‑focused names in the US would be hit the hardest, but big universal banks with card divisions would also feel the squeeze.
Copper could be the metal to watch in 2026
Copper pushed toward $6 per pound to start the week, supported by tightening supply and fresh concerns that new US tariffs on refined metals could reroute flows and strain global availability further. Disruptions across major South American producers, from weather to labour unrest, are adding to the pressure just as demand accelerates. And with copper sitting at the crossroads of two powerful structural trends, the AI build‑out and the global energy transition, it’s the metal to watch for 2026.
Gold climbs to record high
Gold climbed to a fresh record high this morning, as a cocktail of geopolitical tension and questions over Federal Reserve independence sent investors flocking to safety. Escalating rhetoric between Iran and the US, alongside revelations that Chair Powell faced threats from the White House over past decisions, heightened the sense of political risk. A softer US jobs print on Friday added fuel to the gold trade, with traders leaning into expectations of two rate cuts this year ahead of a pivotal inflation report later this week.
Global markets on the back foot
Global markets opened on the back foot this morning, with the FTSE 100 edging lower, alongside softer European markets and US futures pointing to a muted Wall Street open later today, as investors grapple with fresh political turbulence and rising geopolitical risk. Sentiment has been shaken by news of a criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his claims of political pressure from the Trump administration, while unrest in Iran and talk of possible US intervention add another layer of concern.