HL commentary as it happens

US markets edge higher on rate cut hopes

US stocks pushed through some early jitters, closing higher again, reinforcing the sense that momentum is back as rate-cut expectations firm up. Investors are leaning into the idea that easier policy is coming, which is fuelling appetite for risk and lifting everything from blue chips to small caps. Still, with inflation data and Fed decisions ahead, the path is far from set in stone.

Expectations have swung wildly over the past month, so assuming any cuts are a done deal could be a costly mistake, and volatility can just as quickly return if the rate cutting narrative shifts. One thing’s clear, if markets want a Santa rally, they need the Fed to stay in line.

Oil extends recent gains

Brent crude oil is edging up toward $63 a barrel, as Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil sites and stalled peace talks keep supply fears alive. Washington’s latest hard line on Venezuela is adding another spot of upward pressure into the mix. Still, prices are down double digits for the year, a reminder that the broader trend is softer. For most households and businesses, that’s a win - lower energy costs are a key factor in keeping inflation under control.

FTSE 100 higher at the open, closing in on a strong year

The FTSE 100 is pushing higher at the open, riding the same wave of optimism as US markets with rate-cut hopes lifting risk appetite. With a strong December finish, UK’s blue-chip stocks could edge past the S&P 500 for rare annual performance bragging rights - the two are neck and neck right now.

Oil extends gains

Oil prices edged higher again this morning, extending recent gains as geopolitical tensions and supply risks dominate the narrative. Ukrainian strikes over the weekend damaged key infrastructure, while US–Venezuela tensions flared after Washington warned its airspace should be considered closed.

FTSE 100 opens lower

The FTSE 100 is struggling to find momentum in the early days of December - not so much a sign of weakness as a lack of catalysts to drive the next leg higher. Against that backdrop, UK banks are offering a dose of optimism this morning in what’s turning out to be a good couple of weeks for the major lenders.

US markets await fresh catalysts

US markets slipped last night on light volumes, as investors seemed to be shaking off the weekend’s Thanksgiving celebrations. Futures point to a muted start again today, with US markets still hovering near record highs but lacking fresh catalysts. A quiet earnings calendar and sparse economic data keep the tone subdued, leaving investors looking ahead to Friday’s delayed PCE inflation report. With rate-cut odds for next week sitting at 86%, inflation data could be the spark everyone’s waiting for, if it’s supportive of further cuts.