HL LIVE
HL commentary as it happens
Friday 1st August
Brent crude steady as India pulls back from Russian oil imports
Brent crude prices are stable today at around $71.6 per barrel largely shrugging off the latest twists and turns in the tariff saga. Overall import duties aren’t as severe as initially feared. And on the supply side Donald Trump’s got Russian oil firmly in his sights with threats to increase Tariffs to buyers of Russian crude, a move that’s already seen Indian refineries pause purchases from the world’s third largest producer.
US Stock futures dip
US stock futures are also pointing to a weak open, with non-farm payrolls and unemployment the other key focus for the day. Markets have become increasingly pessimistic about the prospects of a September rate cut by the Fed. Job growth is expected to have slowed to 110,000 in July but anything faster will see the probability of imminent rate cuts diminish further.
Trump announces new tariff rates for 92 countries
Countries playing tariff poker with Donald Trump have had their bluff called with new US import tax rates announced for 92 nations shortly before the 1 August deadline came into play, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%. Mexico was the only reprieve of note, earning a 90-day extension to agree a deal. China already faces a separate deadline of 12 August.
Tuesday 29th July
Oil prices hold on to gains on supply fears
Brent oil prices held near $70 on Tuesday, steadying after a more than 2% surge sparked by renewed fears of tighter global supply, as President Trump abruptly slashed Russia’s timeline to broker peace in Ukraine. The move, shortening the ceasefire window from 50 days to just 10-12, comes alongside fresh EU sanctions, including a lower oil price cap and tougher banking restrictions, further squeezing Moscow’s export routes. With trade tensions easing elsewhere, the market’s focus now shifts to China, where expectations of a tariff truce extension are keeping demand hopes afloat.
S&P 500 notches sixth consecutive record high
US markets are on a heater, and while the S&P 500's modest 0.02% gain wouldn’t normally turn heads, last night's close was its sixth consecutive record high. Investors took the EU’s expected 15% tariff move in stride, the latest indicator that this Trump administration is getting some big deals done, and any tariff war risk built into stock valuations has all but disappeared. Focus now shifts to China trade talks and a jam-packed week ahead, with a quarter of the S&P 500 index reporting earnings, a critical Fed decision, and no shortage of data poised to test the market’s nerve.
FTSE 100 opens higher on busy earnings day
Results season is in full swing as several FTSE 100 giants reported this morning. The index ticked higher in early trading as investors try to make heads and tails of global trade developments, as well as corporate earnings. European stocks also ticked higher after a poor day yesterday, as investors weighed the broader fallout from a US-EU trade deal that’s stirred more concern than confidence across the bloc. The agreement, widely viewed as tilting in Washington’s favour, risks deepening growth anxiety in core Eurozone economies already grappling with fragile momentum.
Monday 28th July
Oil prices climb back to $69 per barrel
The US-EU trade deal has seen Brent crude oil prices climb back to $69 per barrel, with trade talks between Washington and Beijing the main focus for the rest of today. Later this week, estimates for July production by OPEC nations will confirm to what extent production increases have materialised.
European markets and US futures set for a positive start to week
European stocks are also up this morning and US futures point to a solid start to the week later today. There’s little economic or corporate news expected today, but looking to the rest of the week, investors have plenty of central bank meetings, economic data points, and earnings season read outs to get to grips with. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, but markets will also be closely watching second-quarter US GDP figures. Forecasts expect a 2.4% rebound following a 0.5% in Q1. Surging imports caused by tariff fears are now thought to have subsided. Elsewhere, there’s also Eurozone second-quarter GDP numbers to keep an eye on and a rate decision by the Bank of Japan.
FTSE breaches new highs
After a roaring victory on the football field for the Lionesses to retain the title in Euro 2025, UK investors are continuing to enjoy the feel-good factor with the FTSE breaching new highs this morning up 0.5% to 9,167 at the time of writing.
But rather than the £800 million or so spending boost on items such as beer and football shirts that the tournament’s provided, it’s the inking of a trade deal between the United States and European Union that’s helping markets spring into action.
The 15% tariff on all transatlantic EU exports should be a huge relief for multiple European industries, from pharmaceutical companies through to electronic manufacturers and luxury brands. As the world’s biggest trade corridor (30% of global trade and 43% of world GDP), this removes a huge element of doubt ahead of the 1 August deadline.