Is AI a stock market bubble and what’s next for investors?

Artificial intelligence (AI) has quickly become one of the most talked-about themes in global markets, with investors pouring billions into AI-related companies, but could it be a stock market bubble?
Young business person using system AI Chatbot.jpg

Important information - This article isn’t personal advice. If you’re not sure whether an investment is right for you please seek advice. If you choose to invest the value of your investment will rise and fall, so you could get back less than you put in.

AI is more than just your ChatGPT or Copilot. It has the power to revolutionise the ways companies operate.

In the broadest sense, the integration of AI could potentially lead to improvements in productivity, cost efficiency, and decision-making.

It isn’t just technology companies that could benefit though.

AI could impact every sector – from healthcare, where AI can help with diagnosing diseases quicker than a human, to a retail company offering bespoke advertising tailored to a consumer.

The opportunities for companies to integrate AI could give them a competitive advantage and that’s got investors excited about their prospects.

This article isn’t personal advice. If you're not sure if a course of action is right for you, ask for financial advice. Remember, all investments can rise and fall in value, so you could get back less than you invest. Past performance also isn’t a guide to the future.

What do the experts think?

Our Research Team recently met Gary Robinson, co-manager of the Baillie Gifford American fund, currently on the Wealth Shortlist, and Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust.

He’s been a long-time admirer of AI, so we found out more about his current views.

Robinson is more excited than ever. He believes momentum is building and that AI is beginning to have a real impact on companies.

OpenAI, best known for ChatGPT, is a private company (not currently listed on a stock market) but rumoured to produce $12bn in revenue over the coming year and recently announced 700mn weekly users – much more than many people expected.

Companies like Shopify have been able to significantly reduce their workforce and still grow due to the benefits of AI. During the pandemic in 2020 Shopify had 11,000 employees and this has been cut to 8,000. Growing the company without growing headcount bodes well for long-term profitability.

AI is also increasingly being used as a tool for deep research and brainstorming new ideas.

Robinson recognises there are limitations too and that AI is still a work in progress in the financial world, but he feels it’s heading in the right direction.

Is AI a bubble?

There are a small number of companies that investors currently view as frontrunners in the AI race. AI-related stocks have consistently reached new highs as confidence in the long-term potential of the technology grows.

Companies like NVIDIA – which designs and manufactures the chips that power the latest AI models – has seen its share price rise significantly over the last few years as companies rush to buy its chips.

Other companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Meta have spent a significant amount of money on trying to unlock the potential that AI could have on their business. Investors are backing that it will lead to long-term efficiency gains.

While share price growth has been supported by strong earnings in many cases, this enthusiasm has led some to believe that markets could be entering bubble territory.

It already hasn’t been smooth sailing for investors. Company results are being closely scrutinised for any signs of an AI slowdown, leading to sharp declines when expectations aren’t met.

NVIDIA recently saw a decline in share price despite reporting that revenue increased 6% in the second quarter when compared to the first, and was 56% higher for the same period last year.

A concern for many was the recent study by Massachusetts Institute of Technology that found 95% of companies’ AI spending has failed to deliver measurable returns. While tools like ChatGPT and Copilot are widely used, their impact on company-wide profitability apparently remains limited.

For share prices to keep rising, investors will need to see a return from the AI spending.

There’s also evidence of herd mentality and investors piling into shares due to fears of missing out, rather than because of company prospects.

What’s next for AI?

AI’s future will depend on its ability to deliver tangible outcomes for companies and consumers.

Investors will start to shift their focus on whether AI is all hype or whether businesses can use it to extract long-term value.

Investing in these funds or trusts isn’t right for everyone. Investors should only invest if the funds or trusts objectives are aligned with their own, and there’s a specific need for the type of investment being made. Investors should understand the specific risks of a fund or trust before they invest, and make sure any new investment forms part of a diversified portfolio.

For more details on each fund or trust including its charges and risks, use the links to their factsheets and key investor information.

2 investment ideas to benefit from AI

Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust

Managed by Gary Robinson and Kirsty Gibson this trust aims to invest in disruptive businesses with strong growth prospects based in the US.

The managers’ growth style of investing aims to benefit from investing in exceptional businesses and holding them for long enough to reap the rewards.

The trust invests in both companies that trade publicly on the stock market, and private companies that don’t. The managers believe this offers greater opportunities, especially within AI as they can access early-stage AI companies that have the potential to grow significantly.

Investing in private, or unquoted, companies is riskier though because they can take longer to buy and sell than public ones.

These companies should be held for the long term and investors should remember they’re more prone to failure compared with larger, more established firms.

As at the end of July 2025, 33.8% of the trust was invested in private companies.

The managers’ investment approach means performance can be materially different to, and more volatile than, the market. The managers invest in smaller companies and have the flexibility to invest in derivatives, which if used adds risk.

The trust also borrows money to invest with the intention of increasing returns (known as gearing), though it can also enhance losses. At the end of July gearing was 5%.

Please note the share price of investment trusts can trade at a premium or discount to their net asset value (NAV).

At the time of writing the trust trades at a discount of 9.42%. This compares to an average discount of 8.37% over the last 12 months.

Prices delayed by at least 15 minutes

Annual percentage growth

31/08/2020 To 31/08/2021

31/08/2021 To 31/08/2022

31/08/2022 To 31/08/2023

31/08/2023 To 31/08/2024

31/08/2024 To 31/08/2025

Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust Plc

41.56

-51.16

-7.62

25.00

37.63

AIC Investment Trust - North America

41.78

-2.84

-1.25

17.54

18.96

Past performance isn't a guide to future returns.
Source: Lipper IM, to 31/07/2025.

Rathbone Global Opportunities

James Thomson has managed this fund since November 2003 and is supported by his deputy manager Sammy Dow.

They invest in companies they consider to be under the radar or those that have been shunned by other investors but still have potential to grow over the long term.

They might hold onto these companies as they get bigger or become recognised by more investors to benefit from the potential for longer-term success.

As at the end of July 2025, 19.43% of the fund was invested in the technology sector which includes the likes of NVIDIA, Microsoft and ASML – all seen as big players in the AI space.

While the fund currently invests more in AI-related companies than some of its peers, this amount can change over time and the managers invest in other sectors too.

This makes the fund a more diversified option for investors seeking a broader approach.

The managers have the flexibility to invest in smaller companies and emerging markets which adds risk.

Annual percentage growth

31/08/2020 To 31/08/2021

31/08/2021 To 31/08/2022

31/08/2022 To 31/08/2023

31/08/2023 To 31/08/2024

31/08/2024 To 31/08/2025

Rathbone Global Opportunities

25.11

-15.72

7.78

19.56

9.99

IA Global

26.67

-5.59

3.27

14.63

9.09

Past performance isn't a guide to future returns.
Source: Lipper IM, to 31/07/2025.
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Written by
Aidan Moyle
Aidan Moyle
Investment Analyst

Aidan joined the Fund Research team in 2022 and is responsible for analysing funds and investment trusts in the US and Global Sectors. He has a keen interest in macroeconomics and in particular US monetary policies and the impact it can have on clients' investments.

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Article history
Published: 12th September 2025