Next week on the stock market

GSK is set to report its second-quarter results next week as it continues to face a challenging backdrop marked by weaker vaccine sales, U.S. drug-pricing reforms, and growing tariff risks. Despite these headwinds, the pharmaceutical giant has so far stuck to its underlying profit growth guidance of 6–8% for this year. We’ll want to see if vaccine headwinds are still expected to moderate in the second half.

Investors will be watching whether recent regulatory obstacles for Blenrep, GSK’s blood cancer treatment, has impacted the longer-term revenue target of over £40bn by 2031. But there’s been clinical success elsewhere as well as further acquisition activity. Given the breadth of the pipeline, and our view that this is a relatively modest target, we’re not too concerned.

Parties related to the writer hold shares in GSK.

Shell reports second-quarter earnings next week. The group has already flagged some challenges encountered in the period. Lower production volumes, weak commodity trading, and disruption caused by a fire at a key chemical plant will all weigh on the numbers. That’s seen market forecasts for quarterly underlying earnings fall from nearly $4.6bn earlier this month to around $3.9bn.

The group’s quarterly buyback pace will be closely scrutinised ($3.5bn in the first quarter). Shell’s balance sheet strength means we’re not expecting a material cut this time round. Of course there can be no guarantee. But with oil prices being volatile, continuing such aggressive distributions could stretch bring the sustainability of such payouts into question if prices stay subdued.

Investors will therefore be hoping third quarter guidance includes a recovery in oil and gas production levels and improved performance in the company's chemicals division.

International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG) is set to report its half-year earnings next week, and investors will be watching closely after a strong start to 2025. In Q1, IAG’s revenue and profits beat expectations thanks to increased capacity, higher ticket prices and lower fuel costs. But the price of jet fuel has since shot up following military action against Iran, and it’s proving to be stickier than crude oil prices, potentially pressuring margins.

A key focus this quarter will be bookings for the rest of the year, with around 80% of Q2 seats sold as of the last update. Tariffs had been weighing on the travel sector, given their potential to increase prices and cause a global economic slowdown. But thanks to the group’s strong brands and routes, we’re cautiously optimistic that demand has held up well. With second-quarter operating profits expected to rise by 16% to €1.4bn, the group could announce a fresh round of shareholder returns. Although, nothing is guaranteed.