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Tullow Oil - 600m pound rights issue

Nicholas Hyett | 17 March 2017 | A A A
Tullow Oil - 600m pound rights issue

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Tullow Oil plc Ordinary 10p

Sell: 165.00 | Buy: 165.20 | Change 8.00 (5.09%)
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On 17 March Tullow announced a 25 for 49 rights issue, at 130p per share. The issue aims to raise c. £600m and is set at a 45.2% discount to the closing price the day before the announcement was made.

The theoretical ex-rights price after the issue is 201.1p per share.

The shares fell 14.6% following the announcement to 202.7p.

Our View

Tullow has been desperately unlucky. Having found vast quantities of oil, it then saw the rug pulled from under its feet when the price of crude plunged, just as the company was fully committed to taking on huge debts in order to develop the new fields.

However, Tullow's lenders have kept the faith, renewing and extending debt facilities through thick and thin, allowing the group to focus on developing its discoveries.

With the bulk of the capital expenditure behind it, Tullow is finally starting to see production rise - with the huge TEN oil field online, production is expected to ramp up further next year. In the longer term the group will be hoping to see returns from its East African operations, with other exploration activities accounting for 25% of next year's significantly lower capital expenditure.

Unfortunately, debt continues to loom large at Tullow. The combination of increased production and falling expenditure should mean it can use cash from operations to pay down the debt mountain. However, the group has, not unexpectedly, decided it needs to speed up the process by turning to shareholders. The issue, combined with the sale of some of it East African assets, should put the group on a firmer financial footing, but there is still plenty of debt to clear.

Tullow deserves credit for its ongoing exploration success, as well as its development achievements. Nonetheless, as its hedging programme unwinds, the group's future cash flows will be dependent on the oil price. This means that until debt is back at manageable levels, Tullow's future remains largely outside of its control.

Full year results (8 February 2017):

Oil production in Tullow's West African fields averaged 65,500 barrels of oil per day (bopd). The region primarily constitutes the Ghanaian Jubilee and TEN fields, with the completion of TEN meaning that field contributed to production for the first time this year. European gas assets contributed 6,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd).

Production in 2017 is expected to average between 78,000 and 85,000 bopd in West Africa, with European production of between 6,000 and 7,000 boepd.

Exploration activities have continued, with progress made in Kenya and a farm-down deal agreed with Total in Uganda for a total consideration of $900m. The deal will see Tullow receive $200m in cash, of which $100m is payable on completion of the transaction, $50m payable on the final investment decision and $50m payable at first oil. The remaining $700m represents reimbursement of a proportion of Tullow's past exploration and development costs.

Operating capital expenditure in 2016 was $0.9bn, and is expected to fall further in 2017 to $0.5bn, of which $125m should be offset by the Uganda farm down deal.

CEO Aidan Heavey will be stepping up to become Chairman following the group's AGM on the 26th April, with current COO Paul McDade taking up the position of CEO.

Unless otherwise stated, all estimated figures, including prospective dividend yields, are taken from a consensus of analyst forecasts compiled by Thomson Reuters. These estimates should not be taken as a reliable indicator of future performance.

All yield figures are variable and not guaranteed. The information in this article is not intended to be advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment mentioned, nor is it a research recommendation. No view is given as to the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view in relation to any proposed investment.

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