Carnival, Q3 Results, Tuesday 29 September Derren Nathan, head of equity analysis, Hargreaves Lansdown: “Carnival’s third quarter covers the key summer trading period, and the market will be looking for evidence that strong demand is still converting into profitable growth. Revenue is expected to rise to around $8.3bn, up from $8.2bn last year, while underlying cash profit (EBITDA) is forecast to dip slightly to about $2.9bn. That reflects the drag from higher fuel costs and pressure on European deployments, particularly the Mediterranean, where geopolitical disruption has weighed on booking trends.
The bigger picture still looks supportive, with 93% of this year’s cabin space already reserved at the last update and customer deposits at record levels. But markets will be watching whether strong onboard spending and wider demand momentum can offset that regional pressure. Any change to full-year guidance, currently pointing to underlying cash profit of around $7.1bn, is likely to be the key driver of sentiment.”
Greggs, Q3 Trading Statement, Wednesday 30 September Derren Nathan, head of equity analysis, Hargreaves Lansdown: "Greggs’ third-quarter update will show whether the baker can keep momentum rising after a strong first half. Total sales grew 7.2% to £1.1bn in the first six months, helped by new shops, grocery partnerships and 2.1% like-for-like growth in company-managed stores. But full-year profit guidance was left unchanged, with higher second-half costs and investment in logistics capacity expected to weigh on margins.
Forecasts are pencilling in full-year revenue of around £2.3bn and operating profit of about £193mn, slightly ahead of where management’s unchanged profit outlook appears to sit. With the valuation now more demanding than it was before the half-year results, the third-quarter update has a higher bar to clear. Menu innovation, delivery, evening trade and the expanding shop estate all remain important levers, but markets will want evidence that Greggs can sustain like-for-like momentum without giving back too much of the first-half margin improvement.”
JD Wetherspoon, Full Year Results, Friday 2 October Derren Nathan, head of equity analysis, Hargreaves Lansdown: “JD Wetherspoon’s full-year results follow another profit warning, but the bigger question is what the current cost backdrop means for guidance. The July update showed like-for-like sales up 4.0% over the final 12 weeks and 4.2% year to date, but sales were still a little softer than expected and costs were higher across food, labour, repairs, energy and business rates. Consensus points to revenue of around £2.2bn and pre-tax profit of about £64.6mn, down from £81.5mn last year.
The balance sheet should remain a relative support, with year-end net debt expected to stay flat at about £720mn despite continued investment in freeholds and share buybacks. The group had bought back £41.7mn of shares by July, but with margins under pressure, markets will want reassurance that cash generation is strong enough to support future returns, including any dividend and buyback plans. Neither of which is guaranteed.”
Among those currently scheduled to release results next week:
28 September |
|---|
No FTSE 350 reporters |
29 September | |
|---|---|
A.G. Barr | Half Year Results |
Carnival* | Q3 Results |
Close Brothers Group | Full Year Results |
30 September | |
|---|---|
Greggs | Q3 Trading Statement |
1 October |
|---|
No FTSE 350 reporters |
2 October | |
|---|---|
JD Wetherspoon | Full Year Results |
* Events on which we will be updating investors
Notes to Editors
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