DS Smith's expecting full year underlying operating profit to be £605-£615m as price increases and volume growth have more than offset inflationary headwinds.
Like-for-like corrugated box volume growth is expected to be at least 5% for the year.
The group's also expecting net debt compared to cash profits (EBITDA) to fall from 2.2 times to 1.7 times. This is an improvement on previous guidance.
DS Smith has limited exposure to Russia, but holds a minority investment in a Ukrainian business. The group will record a one-off, non-cash charge of around £30m this year to account for the impact of the war in the region.
Shares rose 1.2% following the announcement
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Our View
While most businesses nurse growing inflationary wounds, DS Smith is out there proving that people will pay anything for a product they need. In fact, DS Smith's doing more than coping, the cardboard box maker is thriving in a difficult environment.
The group is a key supplier to ecommerce groups - providing the cardboard boxes that have become a familiar sight outside houses up and down the country, as we shifted to online shopping during lockdown. DS Smith also sells its boxes to consumer goods and food groups. These include many of the ''shelf-ready'' cardboard boxes you'll find in the supermarkets. Those two groups make up over 80% of DS Smith's business.
Demand in these segments is holding up - consumers are keen to shift away from plastic packaging and reliance on e-commerce is a trend that's here to stay.
Crucially, profits have come along for the ride, where we'd been concerned this wouldn't be the case. Costs are an ongoing point of interest where DS Smith's concerned. It makes much of the paper it needs in-house, and wants to cut that even further to around 60%. This means DS Smith gets its raw materials cheaper when paper prices fall in tough times. However, when the industry is booming and paper is more expensive the group's margins get squeezed. With commodity prices on the rise, this goal likely isn't a priority.
Input costs are on the rise, and to cope, DS Smith is increasing its own packaging price. This strategy is offsetting those higher costs. This hasn't upset demand so far, insulating the group from inflationary headwinds.
The balance sheet's been carrying a little more debt than is ideal, following the acquisition of Europac - a French, Spanish and Portuguese packaging group. But management's expecting net debt to be 1.7 times underlying cash profits (EBITDA) at the full year, suggesting progress on this front.
That brings us to the group's dividend, which is back on the table after a Covid-related pause last year. In light of improving trading, the 5.0% prospective dividend looks to be well-covered for now. However this is contingent on price increases continuing to offset rising input costs without denting volumes. This isn't guaranteed.
Overall, we think DS Smith is in a strong position with exposure to attractive end markets. We don't think those strengths are necessarily reflected in the current valuation, but remember this also reflects the ongoing uncertainty.
DS Smith key facts
All ratios are sourced from Refinitiv. Please remember yields are variable and not a reliable indicator of future income. Keep in mind key figures shouldn't be looked at on their own - it's important to understand the big picture.
Second Half Results (9 December 2021)
Half year revenue rose 22% to £3.4bn, increased demand for retail and sustainable packaging means volumes reached record levels. There was especially strong growth in the US and Southern Europe. The group's been able to offset rising input costs through lower energy costs and raising prices.
As a result, underlying operating profit rose 26% to £276m.
DS Smith said it's on track to meet its targets for the second half of the year and announced an interim dividend of 4.8p. That's an increase of 20% and in-line with the dividend policy.
Corrugated box volumes rose 9.8% compared to 8.8% last year, on a rolling twelve-month basis, volumes are up 8.8%.
Revenue in Northern Europe rose 20% to £1.3bn, reflecting strong box volumes and price increases. The region also benefitted from higher selling prices of paper and recycled fibre. These benefits, as well as the benefits of scale from the higher volumes, more than offset increased input costs and underlying operating profit rose 30% to £87m.
Similar trends played out in Southern Europe, where better tourism trends in Iberia also helped. Revenue was up 27% to £1.2bn, while underlying operating profit rose 28% to £122m.
Eastern Europe saw revenues rise 26% to £523m, again because of higher volumes. However, underlying operating profit fell 11% to £31m. Largely due to increased paper costs as the region's slower to pass these on to customers in the short term.
Revenue rose 7% to £274m and underlying operating profit rose 64% to £36m in North America.
Free cash flow of £188m was lower than the £207m achieved at the same time last year. Net debt was £1.6bn, down from £1.8bn, and is now equivalent to 1.9 times cash profits.
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