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ASML: good Q2 but 2026 growth in question

ASML continues to benefit from increased AI demand, but uncertain economic conditions have cast a shadow on the outlook.
ASML - order intake spikes

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ASML reported a 23% rise in second quarter revenue to 7.7bn (€7.5bn expected). Operating income rose 45% to €2.7bn (€2.4bn expected) with a margin of 34.6%. New orders were broadly flat at €5.5bn.

Performance was driven by upgrades to the existing installed base, one-off cost benefits, and a less severe tariff impact than expected.

Free cash flow fell 17% to 319mn and there was net cash on the balance sheet of $3.6bn.

Third quarter revenue is expected to land between €7.4-7.9bn ($8.2bn expected) and operating income around €2.4bn (€2.7bn expected).

Looking further ahead, growth in 2026 is uncertain at this stage, with management calling out “increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments”.

An interim dividend of €1.6 was announced, payable in August, and around €1.4bn worth of shares were brought back over the period.

The shares were down 6.4% in early trading.

Our view

HL view to follow.

ASML key facts

All ratios are sourced from LSEG Datastream, based on previous day’s closing values. Please remember yields are variable and not a reliable indicator of future income. Keep in mind key figures shouldn’t be looked at on their own – it’s important to understand the big picture.

This article is original Hargreaves Lansdown content, published by Hargreaves Lansdown. It was correct as at the date of publication, and our views may have changed since then. Unless otherwise stated estimates, including prospective yields, are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by Refinitiv. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Yields are variable and not guaranteed. Investments rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss.

This article is not advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment.No view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment.This article has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is considered a marketing communication.Non - independent research is not subject to FCA rules prohibiting dealing ahead of research, however HL has put controls in place(including dealing restrictions, physical and information barriers) to manage potential conflicts of interest presented by such dealing.Please see our full non - independent research disclosure for more information.
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Written by
Matt-Britzman
Matt Britzman
Senior Equity Analyst

Matt is a Senior Equity Analyst on the share research team, providing up-to-date research and analysis on individual companies and wider sectors. He is a CFA Charterholder and also holds the Investment Management Certificate.

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Article history
Published: 16th July 2025