First half revenue grew 15% to $31.0bn, helped by a 3% increase in production and favourable commodity prices.
Underlying cash profit (EBITDA) was up 28% to $14.8bn, helped by strong pricing and efficiency gains, though this was slightly worse than expected. Iron ore profits dipped by 1%, also coming in below expectations, but this was more than offset by growth elsewhere. Copper was the stand-out, with profits up 84% and ahead of expectations.
Free cash flow rose 75% to $3.8bn largely because of operational performance. Net debt fell 2% to $14.1bn. The interim dividend was raised 43% to $2.11 per share.
Operational guidance for 2026 was broadly unchanged, although the expected tax rate has been reduced.
The shares were up 2.3% in early trading.
Our view
Rio has seen last year’s strong momentum carry through to the first half of 2026. Copper remains the standout growth driver, and prices look set to comfortably support another strong year of growth in 2026 (if they stay put). But the flip side for Rio is that iron ore prices have come under renewed pressure, and that’s still by far the biggest business.
The strategic focus on profitability was well received at the time. Although execution risk remains, the company is on track to bank $1.8bn of productivity gains by the end of this year. The emphasis on returns rather than volume growth is encouraging, with management targeting a potential 40–50% uplift in EBITDA by 2030, supported by disciplined expansion across iron ore, copper and lithium.
Rio has an established reputation for delivering world-class mines and infrastructure, but the nature of mineral extraction means that there’s always execution risk as well as economic and political factors to be mindful of.
Iron ore is set to remain the largest contributor to the bottom line, but that reliance is expected to reduce as efforts to diversify the asset base accelerate. This business is essentially a cash cow at this point. But with many major mines reaching maturity, there are signs that a supply gap could emerge.
Rio’s Simandou mine in West Africa, which has recently started production, is one of the world’s largest untapped reserves of high-grade iron ore. It’s also the only real large-scale driver of new global supply in the foreseeable future – but material uplifts to production are a few years away.
Broadly speaking, the outlook for Rio’s other key focus metals – lithium, aluminium and copper – looks positive. They all benefit from improving fundamentals and are key components in the energy transition. However, the speed of the shift to clean energy is hard to predict.
Rio’s strategy is supported by a strong balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation, with the 40 to 60% dividend payout policy unchanged and typically delivered at the top end. Although asset sales, cost improvements and tighter investment discipline could support higher distributions over time, returns are not guaranteed.
That said, after the recent share price run‑up, the valuation looks full, and though a beneficiary of higher copper prices, other names in the sector have more exposure. As a result, further upside is likely to depend on clearer execution progress or an improving iron ore environment – neither of which is guaranteed.
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) risk
Mining companies tend to come with relatively high ESG risk. Emissions, effluences and waste, and community relations are key risk drivers in this sector. Carbon emissions, resource use, health and safety and bribery, and corruption are also contributors to ESG risk.
According to Sustainalytics, Rio Tinto's management of material ESG issues is strong.
There are comprehensive policies and strong management programmes that address material ESG issues, including a target to reduce emissions across operations (Scope 1 & 2) by 50% by 2030, as well as a 2050 net zero ambition. The new CEO has promised a sharp focus on safety and community engagement. But the deaths of two miners in 2026 and earlier destruction of an important Aboriginal heritage site in Australia serve as reminders of the risks that need to be addressed.
Rio Tinto key facts
All ratios are sourced from LSEG Datastream, based on previous day’s closing values. Please remember that yields are variable and not a reliable indicator of future income. Keep in mind that key figures shouldn’t be looked at on their own – it’s important to understand the big picture.
This article is original Hargreaves Lansdown content, published by Hargreaves Lansdown. It was correct as at the date of publication, and our views may have changed since then. Unless otherwise stated estimates, including prospective yields, are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by LSEG. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Yields are variable and not guaranteed. Investments rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss.
This article is not advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. No view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment.