Next week on the stock market

Will Persimmon’s strong start point to a robust second quarter?

Persimmon got off to a strong start this year, supported by a growing order book and rising average selling prices. Sales rates also ticked slightly higher, pointing to a recovery in buyer confidence. We’re keen to see if this positive momentum continues over the rest of the first half when it reports next week.

Recent housing market data has also been encouraging, showing that prices have started to rise again following a brief dip in April. Demand for new homes remains strong, underpinned by a persistent supply shortage across the UK.

Government efforts to reform the national planning framework are beginning to make a difference, easing some of the long-standing obstacles facing homebuilders. If this momentum continues throughout 2025, the group expects full-year completions to land between its guidance of 11,000 and 11,500 new homes.

Could Easter timing boost TUI’s Q3?

TUI heads into next week’s results following a mixed second quarter, which was impacted by the timing of Easter. This timing shift is expected to work in the company’s favour in the upcoming quarter, providing a positive boost to numbers. Although summer booking patterns reported in May showed some softness in Germany, management has been clear that this was a timing issue rather than a sign of underlying weakness in the region.

Despite ongoing cost-of-living challenges and economic uncertainties, the overall outlook for European package holidays remains encouraging. Management’s commentary also supports expectations for a strong summer season, reflecting the resilience of European consumers.

Analysts are optimistic about the third quarter, forecasting revenue growth of around 6.7% to €6.2 bn. Operating profits appear set to rise at a faster pace of around 12% to €500mn, which is ahead of the 7-10% full-year target.

The author holds shares in TUI.

Aviva enters a new chapter as Direct Line deal closes

Next week’s half-year results will be the first set following the recently completed acquisition of Direct Line. This was its latest well-targeted acquisition, helping reduce the reliance on capital-intensive business. We’ll be looking for updates on the integration and any details on future distribution plans after the buyback was paused while the deal was completed.

Life and health insurance, as well as savings products, are still the core, with around three-quarters of its earnings from these areas. Health insurance has been a key growth area as pressures on the NHS increase demand for private solutions, so we’ll be looking for any updates here. We’ll also want to see ongoing progress in the bulk annuity business, which has benefited from a buoyant market of late.

An Independent Non-Executive Director at Harp BidCo Ltd (parent company of Hargreaves Lansdown Group) is also an Independent Non-Executive Director at Aviva.