Next week on the stock market

Whitbread looks to build on early momentum

Whitbread approaches next week’s half-year results with positive momentum in its core hotel business. First-quarter UK accommodation sales rose 3%, with Premier Inn continuing to outpace the wider market, while Germany delivered double-digit growth. The group entered the second quarter with forward bookings ahead of last year, supported by strong leisure demand, leaving investors looking for signs that momentum continued.

Industry data from Visit England suggests demand remained resilient through the peak summer period, with room rate growth across the broader market accelerating to 8% in August. Given the group’s record of outperformance, we’re not expecting first-half revenue to fall short of the £1.6bn market forecast.

Attention will also focus on whether Germany’s expansion is feeding through to stronger profits. Beyond trading, attention will be on the delivery of the group’s five-year plan and whether management remains on track to simplify the business, improve cash generation and offset ongoing cost pressures.

Strong sales are expected for TSMC, with margins and guidance in focus

TSMC heads into next week's third-quarter results with plenty of momentum. In local currency, sales in July and August were 49% higher than a year ago, which already puts the chipmaker ahead of the pace needed to hit the middle of its guidance range. Markets expect revenue of $44.8bn, up 35% on last year and at the low end of management's guidance. That’s a low bar, with the other key number, earnings per share, expected at $4.46.

Analysts have been raising their numbers. Revenue forecasts for the quarter are up almost 5% over the past three months, with earnings expectations rising nearly 8%. Even so, the shares have been broadly flat since last quarter, despite a strong rally over the past month. We’re expecting management to raise the revenue guide, leaving our focus on margins. Guidance of 65-67% points to a step down from the second quarter's 67.7%, and overseas sites are already weighing on profitability. A positive margin surprise could be a near-term catalyst.

Supply questions in focus for ASML as it rides the AI wave

July's update reset the story for equipment manufacturer ASML, leaving plenty of optimism in the air as we head into third-quarter results. Full-year revenue guidance jumped to €43-45bn from €36-40bn, and the company guided to €11-12bn for the third quarter, well ahead of what markets had expected. Analysts now forecast third-quarter revenue of €11.5bn, up more than 50% on last year and towards the top of that range.

Forecasts have moved a lot as the AI buildout evolves. Quarterly revenue estimates are up 15% over three months, and earnings estimates have risen nearly 30%. The shares haven't followed, held back by worries about China and whether ASML can bring enough new supply online to service demand. That puts our focus on the outlook. Full-year guidance already points to a fourth quarter above €14bn, so investors will want to hear about orders, plans to expand production capacity, and early signs of how strong 2027 could be.