Next week on the stock market

ASML all eyes on 2026 outlook

ASML heads into third quarter results with some question marks looming around the outlook for next year. Results back in July were decent enough, with 23% top-line growth, but that was overshadowed by comments from management that pointed to an uncertain backdrop. Consensus for revenue growth in 2026 has already been brought down from around 7% in July to 4% so investors will have a keen eye on guidance.

Netherlands-based ASML is the market leader in lithography machines used to make semiconductor chips. The AI boom should be a tailwind and there have been some positive developments that suggest new foundries are on the horizon, each needing to be kited out with ASML’s machines. But the demand environment is different to traditional chip names, and the valuation doesn’t offer much upside at the minute in our view.

TSMC strong growth amid tariff challenges

TSMC got off to a strong start in 2025, with first-half results breezing past expectations and underscoring the strength of its exposure to AI and high-performance computing. Meanwhile, tension over tariffs persists, with Washington having floated a mandate that half of chip production occur in the US, a demand that Taiwan didn’t take too kindly.

To counter geopolitical pressure, in March, TSMC pledged to scale up its US commitment, bringing total US investment to $165bn. That includes three new fabrication plants, two advanced packaging plants, and a major R&D hub.

Looking ahead to the third quarter, TSMC has guided revenue of $31.8-33.0bn, implying roughly 38% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. That sets the bar high, but it is consistent with the upward trajectory established earlier in the year and signals confidence even amid macro and policy uncertainty.

Whitbread hopes to see bookings strength continue

Whitbread had a challenging first quarter as both Accommodation and Food and Beverage sales declined. Bookings were tracking ahead of last year, but Premier Inn doesn’t benefit greatly from revenue visibility and we’ll be keen to see if the improving demand trend has persisted. Recent industry data suggests that while UK room rates have been largely flat, occupancy has been on the increase. Premier Inn tends to outperform the competition, but there can be no guarantees.

Germany started the year more brightly and last we heard, the region remains on track to deliver profitability by the end of the year. But it’s not the main event for now. Overall market forecasts for first half group revenue and operating profit to land a shade below last year look reasonable. But achieving this isn’t just down to demand. It also hinges on Whitbread’s ability to deliver on its efficiency promises so that it can mitigate continuing cost pressures.