Whitbread plc (WTB) Ordinary 76 122/153p Shares

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Whitbread’s first quarter sales were down 4% with total UK accommodation sales falling 2%. This was due to lower occupancy and room rates, particularly in London.

UK food and beverage sales fell 16% impacted by restaurant closures and disposals.

Sales in Germany were up 16%, helped by a 5.7% increase in average room rates and growing contribution from food and beverages. This German business remains on track to reach profitability in this financial year.

Bookings are currently tracking ‘’ahead’’ of last year, but the company notes that visibility into future demand remains limited.

The shares fell 2.3% in early trading.

Our view

Whitbread’s first quarter showed that trading had deteriorated further since it published its full-year results. Weak demand in the UK hotel market has impacted both occupancy and room rates. Looking ahead, Whitbread has seen encouraging bookings and enjoys a strong market position. But there’s much work to be done over the rest of the year if it’s to keep sales flat, which is what consensus forecasts are looking for.

Despite the immediate challenges, Whitbread remains focussed on expanding its UK footprint. Premier Inn guests provide a captive market for the group’s food and beverage arm and rapid progress is being made to reduce involvement in lower-returning standalone pubs and dining venues in favour of integrated restaurants at Premier Inn.

Shutting down branded restaurants also frees up real estate for Premier Inn’s expansion, with over a quarter of the 12,000 or so room openings planned by 2030 expected to come from restaurant conversions.

Easing inflation at home is not doing the group any favours. It’s putting pressure on room rates. And when it comes to the Group’s own £1.7bn cost base, recent increases in Employer’s National Insurance and the National Living Wage are driving a rise in expenses that will more than wipe out the benefit of cost savings this year. But with £190mn of efficiencies identified for the following three years, there’s scope for margins to improve thereafter.

If Whitbread can reproduce Premier Inn's success in Germany, this is potentially a bigger growth opportunity. But it’s yet to turn a profit. So it could be a while before Germany makes a meaningful contribution.

Whitbread’s considerable investment plans of around £0.7bn for the current year should be largely funded by cash flows and disposals of non-core assets. Borrowings have been on the increase. For now net debt remains within the Group’s target range, but that could change if market conditions deteriorate further, and may require a shift in spending plans.

Whitbread is well placed to continue outperforming its competitors and we see long-term potential for both organic growth and further consolidation. The valuation sits below the long-term average and in our view, isn't overly demanding. However, the near-term challenges of a weaker demand environment remain very real, elevating the risk to shareholder returns and investor sentiment

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) risk

Consumer services companies are medium-risk in terms of ESG, and very few companies are excelling at managing them. That leaves plenty of opportunity for forward-thinking firms. The primary risk-driver is product governance. The impact of their products on society, labour relations and environmental concerns are also key risks to monitor.

Whitbread's management of material ESG issues is strong according to Sustainalytics.

Human capital management is considered above average with a strong development program in place. The company has appointed a management committee for overseeing ESG issues, but reporting is not in accordance with leading standards. As the owner of the UK's largest hotel chain, we would like to see an improvement in carbon intensity, and clearer targets on reducing its water usage. Further, management of product governance has been called out as average with no evidence that Whitbread's hotels and restaurants have received external quality certifications.

This article is original Hargreaves Lansdown content, published by Hargreaves Lansdown. It was correct as at the date of publication, and our views may have changed since then. Unless otherwise stated estimates, including prospective yields, are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by Refinitiv. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Yields are variable and not guaranteed. Investments rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss.

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