Heathrow cuts FY passenger forecast amid Iran war uncertainty

(Sharecast News) - Heathrow cut its full-year passenger forecast and its earnings guidance on Friday as it said passenger demand to date has been resilient, but the outlook remains uncertain amid the Iran war.

The airport's base case is for 83.6 million passengers this year, down 1.1% on the year, as the conflict in the Middle East continues to take its toll.

"This reflects the risk that continued volatility in the Middle East could dampen broader traffic volumes, with impacts extending beyond the region to global travel demand over the remainder of the year," Heathrow said. The broader traffic range for the year is 80.1m to 84.5m.

Heathrow's previous base case was for passenger numbers of 85m for the year ended 31 December 2026.

In the five months to May 2026, passenger numbers rose 0.7% on the year to 32.8m, driven by larger aircraft and a boost in connecting passengers, although the ongoing Iran war is putting notable downward pressure on traffic, it said.

Heathrow also said in the report that the conflict is set to impact its financial outlook. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation are forecast to fall by �147m compared to 2025 and by �60m versus the December 2025 investor report forecast.

Aeronautical revenue is expected to decline by �49m versus the December report due to a lower traffic outlook, while non-aeronautical income remains broadly in line with previous projections, it said.