Glencore's full-year revenue rose 7% to $248bn ($239bn expected). Strong growth in metals and minerals, supported by higher copper and gold prices, was partly offset by declines in energy and steelmaking coal.
Underlying cash profit (EBITDA) fell 6% to $13.5bn, primarily reflecting significantly lower coal prices, partly offset by stronger metals pricing, particularly in the second half. Glencore also wrote down the value of its Cerrejón coal operations by $0.9bn.
Free cash flow was $1.8bn, down from $3.8bn in 2024. Net debt was flat year-on-year at $11.2bn.
Glencore returned $3.5bn to shareholders during 2025, including $2bn of buybacks. A further distribution of around $2bn ($0.17/share) has been proposed for 2026, paid in two instalments.
Based on current commodity prices, Glencore expects to generate around $7.0bn of free cash flow in 2026.
The shares rose 2.5% in early trading.
Our view
Glencore delivered on the strong second half that investors were looking for. Copper production was almost 50% higher than the first 6 months of the year, and that’s helped offset some weakness from lower energy prices.
Talk of a potential takeover from Rio Tinto has dominated the news feed of late, but with that now in the rear-view mirror, focus is back on the business. Self-help measures are underway and are expected to deliver $1bn in annual cost savings by the end of this year.
As Glencore manages the decline of its thermal coal operations, steelmaking coal should become a more important part of the mix. We’re supportive of this shift. While it hasn’t escaped the pricing pressure, margins are much higher than for thermal coal, and the longer-term demand picture looks much more positive.
Glencore has a large industrial portfolio producing metals and minerals. Industrial assets generated around three-quarters of the group’s cash profit over the year. Coal still generates a decent chunk of these profits, but over half now come from the metals and minerals operation, including copper and nickel.
These metals are essential to global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, and copper is a focus for future growth and investment. There are some ambitious plans, where strong execution and attractive financing will be the key to unlocking value.
There's also a marketing business, which acts as a global commodity marketplace and continues to outperform its longer-term targets. Glencore earns a slice of profit capitalising on different prices for the same commodities in different locations or time periods. Performance is more driven by market volatility than by whether prices are high or low, which offers a nice degree of diversification.
It's important to flag, the Marketing business is extremely complex with a lot of moving parts. Investors should be aware of the risk that brings.
Glencore’s balance sheet is in good shape and, although there can be no guarantee, the dividend yield of 2.5% looks on fairly solid ground - with potential for a little upside if cash flows improve in line with guidance.
We think the outlook is encouraging for Glencore, with its large and growing copper exposure and clear plan in place for the coal portfolio. But the mining sector is facing challenges from US trade wars and weaker global growth, and Glencore has little control over either.
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) risk
Mining companies tend to come with relatively high ESG risk. Emissions, effluences and waste, and community relations are key risk drivers in this sector. Carbon emissions, resource use, health and safety and bribery, and corruption are also contributors to ESG risk.
According to Sustainalytics, Glencore's management of material ESG issues is strong.
Glencore's already paid $1.1bn in fines relating to past governance issues, but anti-corruption policies have improved more recently. A new 2024-26 climate action plan was recently approved by 90% of shareholders, which includes plans for a phasing down of thermal coal operations. There’s also a 2050 net-zero carbon emissions target in place along with interim plans to reduce direct, indirect and supply chain emissions by 15% and 50% by 2026 and 2035.
Glencore key facts
All ratios are sourced from LSEG Datastream, based on previous day’s closing values. Please remember yields are variable and not a reliable indicator of future income. Keep in mind key figures shouldn’t be looked at on their own – it’s important to understand the big picture.
This article is original Hargreaves Lansdown content, published by Hargreaves Lansdown. It was correct as at the date of publication, and our views may have changed since then. Unless otherwise stated estimates, including prospective yields, are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by LSEG. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Yields are variable and not guaranteed. Investments rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss.
This article is not advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. No view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment.