Experian reported organic revenue growth of 8% over the first quarter (consensus 7%) driven by strong performance across the business.
In the key US market, consumer revenue growth was held back by some tough comparable periods which are expected to ease in the coming quarter. Excluding that impact, growth was strong with good demand for credit cards and personal loans.
Full year guidance is unchanged, pointing to 6-8% organic revenue growth.
The shares rose 4.0% in early trading.
Our view
Experian is off to a strong start, with organic revenue growth trending toward the top end of guidance. Management sounded a confident tone on the results call, too, and second-quarter growth is expected to follow a similar trend.
Experian is a global information services company specialising in data analytics, credit reporting, and identity verification.
Despite interest rates staying stubbornly high in the core US market, lenders' confidence is improving. Experian's broad range of products and services positions it well across various market conditions. The proof’s in the pudding, and strong, dependable top-line growth and margin expansion despite uncertain conditions are impressive.
The US credit bureau market, dominated by Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion, forms the core of Experian's operations, where it connects borrowers with lenders. This market concentration provides pricing power, allowing cash from core operations to fuel growth in new areas.
The Consumer Services division differentiates Experian from peers and has shown impressive growth, driven by recent investments and strategic initiatives. It’s further bolstered by a significant rise in free members, now totalling over 200mn. With financial literacy becoming more widespread, Experian is well-positioned to capitalise on this trend, offering tools that empower consumers to manage their credit and financial health more effectively.
As the world continues to digitise, we think Experian's data-led solutions for businesses and consumers are likely to see increasing demand. Identity verification, credit assessments, and fraud prevention are critical services that businesses cannot easily forego, adding a layer of resilience to revenue streams.
Latin America is a region where the group is looking to expand further. Its financial services sector is undergoing substantial upgrades, presenting some structural growth opportunities. But for now, economic challenges, especially in Brazil are weighing on the outlook.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) remains a focal point for innovation. Experian's vast and unique data sets provide a robust foundation for AI applications. Integration is already underway, and we see substantial potential for future advancements in this area.
Strong cash generation and a healthy balance sheet are attractive qualities. Net debt relative to underlying cash profit is below the target range, which helps support the ongoing dividend payments and share buybacks. Though there are no guarantees.
Experian's robust market position, strategic investments in technology, and diversified growth opportunities paint a positive long-term picture. We see scope for guidance to be raised at the half-year mark. But there’s still uncertainty about broader economic strength, and the valuation is ahead of the long-term average - two risks to consider.
Environmental, Social and governance (ESG) risk
The commercial services industry is low/medium risk in terms of ESG. Social and governance risks are the most acute - like product governance, data privacy & security, and labour relations - as exposure to environmental risks is minimal. Companies operating within facilities maintenance are also exposed to community relations and emissions risks.
Experian’s overall management of material ESG issues is strong.
A management committee is responsible for overseeing ESG issues, and ESG reporting now follows all leading reporting standards. A strong data privacy and security policy and cybersecurity programme are in place. However, major data breaches in 2015, 2020, and 2021 suggest more improvements could be made.
Experian key facts
All ratios are sourced from LSEG Datastream, based on previous day’s closing values. Please remember yields are variable and not a reliable indicator of future income. Keep in mind key figures shouldn’t be looked at on their own – it’s important to understand the big picture.
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