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(Sharecast News) - Wednesday will bring half-year results from Oxford Nanopore and the latest UK inflation figures for July.
Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, said headline consumer price inflation is expected to jump from a 15-month low of 2.6% in the 12 months to June to around 2.9% in July, fuelled by higher domestic energy bills after the recent 13% jump in Ofgem's energy price cap.
"The predicted rise in inflation is more due to a quirk in the mechanism around how the regulator influences energy bills in the UK rather than the Iran war directly," she said.
"Having said that, this year's geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and the accompanying rise in wholesale gas prices is why the cap has reset sharply higher. Higher airfares over the busy summer travel season could also add to upward pressure on inflation, offset to some extent by the government's Great British Summer Savings scheme, which reduces prices on family attractions and kids' meals by cutting VAT from 20% to 5% until the start of September."
Scholar said that looking ahead, inflation is expected to continue to rise, peaking above 3% later this year, as the UK economy continues to grapple with the backdrop of elevated energy prices and the effective gridlock in the Strait of Hormuz.
"Plus, there is potential for some demand-led inflation amid the resilient UK economy, evidenced by this week's stronger than expected GDP data for June," she said. "The UK is now on track to be the fastest-growing economy in the G7 in the first half of 2026, benefiting from a boost to spending around the World Cup and summer heatwave.
"The Bank of England is likely to carry out roughly one 25 basis point hike by the end of the year as it looks to temper the risk of overheating and help push the inflation rate back in the direction of the central bank's 2% target."
Also on Wednesday, the latest FOMC minutes will be released.
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