Greggs’ third-quarter total sales rose 7.7%, with like-for-like sales up 3.4%.
Guidance for 100-110 net new store openings maintained, plus 12 Express locations.
Full-year outlook has modestly improved from prior guidance that pointed to operating profit of around £188mn.
Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown:
“Greggs served up a tasty trading update, with total sales growth accelerating to 7.7% over the third quarter. This was driven by more settled weather in recent months, alongside ongoing menu development and product innovation. New store openings also played their part, with the group on track for 100-110 net openings this year, excluding 12 Express locations, making it easier for more customers to tuck into their freshly baked goods. Alongside cost inflation remaining at a manageable level of around 2%, the full-year outlook has modestly improved from prior guidance, which had pointed to operating profits of around £188mn.
The challenging macro backdrop and elevated energy prices are likely to persist in the near term. Even so, we think the picture is starting to look better for Greggs than it has for some time. A range of self-help measures, including AI-driven productivity improvements, efficiency measures and energy hedges, should keep cost inflation from rising too much next year. At the same time, Greggs’ peak investment phase is now behind it, reducing pressure on cash flows and allowing more profits to be retained to strengthen an already robust balance sheet. That means the 3.8% forward dividend yield looks well covered, and we think that enhanced shareholder returns could be on the cards in 2027.”
Notes to Editors
HL is the UK’s largest investment and savings platform for private investors and more than 2.2 million clients trust us with £205 billion (as of June 2026).
We help Britain build wealth, with confidence. Our promise is simple: to provide the best products, the best support and the best value. Founded in 1981, we’ve been helping people save and invest for a better financial future for more than four decades. We offer a lifelong, secure home for our clients’ investments and savings, combining great value with outstanding service, to make managing your money easier at every stage of life.
Our award-winning Savings & Resilience Barometer measures the nation’s financial resilience across our 5 to Thrive pillars, equipping people with the tools they need to strengthen their financial futures.
Saving and investing is for the whole family, and to support intergenerational wealth transfer, we’ve removed all platform charges and share dealing fees on our Junior ISA, meaning kids go free, and we’ve reduced the platform fee on our Lifetime ISA to 0.25%, supporting those savings for their first home or for retirement.
Regular saving into all funds, FTSE 350 shares, and selected investment trusts and ETFs is free.
Our clients also have access to the most comprehensive pension and retirement solution, including SIPP accounts, SIPP Income Drawdown, UFPLS payments and annuities, as well as over 14,000 investment options across funds, shares, ETFs, investment trusts, bonds and gilts.
HL Active Savings is the UK's largest retail cash savings platform that lets savers easily make more of their money and the HL Cash ISA allows savers to manage their Cash ISA portfolio across multiple banks, all within one account.