Like-for-like sales from last 12 weeks up 4.0%
Full-year profits likely to miss consensus forecasts (Pre-tax profit: £70.7 million)
Shares open down 9%
Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown:
“Football mania and a scorching summer haven’t been enough to prevent another profit warning for J D Wetherspoon. In an uncharacteristically short pre-close trading statement, Chairman and founder Tim Martin revealed that slightly slower-than-expected fourth-quarter sales and continued cost increases mean that full-year profits are likely to fall short of analyst expectations.
Like-for-like sales growth did pick up from 3.4% in the third quarter to 4.0%, but given the strong seasonal tailwinds, that’s hardly a knockout performance. Some weakness was already flagged in the third-quarter update, but cuts to consensus forecasts have been relatively modest, with pre-tax profit estimates since dropping around 3% to below £71mn. With the shares having rallied strongly in the last month it’s no surprise to see the shares fall 9% at the open.
Alongside the rest of the embattled hospitality sector, J D Wetherspoon will be hoping for supportive policies from the new Burnham government. Cuts to business rates, VAT, and employers’ National Insurance have all been mentioned as possibilities on his route to number 10. However, none of these measures are guaranteed, and with the Treasury’s debt levels at multi-decade highs, quite where the funding could come from remains unclear.”
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