Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown:
“Novo’s Capital Markets Day is trying to rebuild confidence in the growth story, but so far it looks more like a strategic roadmap than a fresh clinical or commercial catalyst. The ambitions are noble, including more than DKK150 billion of pipeline sales by 2035 and revenue growth at least in line with industry peers, but the competitive backdrop has shifted. Eli Lilly has taken the high ground in GLP-1 market share and is still seen as having stronger near-term obesity pipeline momentum. Novo’s Wegovy pill has made some headway, but the bigger question is whether it’s enough on its own to close the gap. The peer benchmark needs unpacking, spanning Eli Lilly and AstraZeneca through to slower-growth large-cap pharma names. Management described this as growth at least in line with a moving consensus peer base, which still leaves investors looking for more detail on the growth profile Novo is really targeting.
Semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, faces loss of exclusivity in major markets in the early 2030s, still the longer-term elephant in the room, but there is still plenty of runway in obesity. Novo points to a market where the obese population is forecast to grow by 31% between 2025 and 2035, with less than 2% currently on GLP-1 therapy. The next phase will not be decided by weight loss alone, and management sounded more optimistic on CagriSema than the market. Patients are behaving more like consumers, so convenience, tolerability and ease of use matter alongside headline efficacy. Plans to scale oral obesity capacity and deliver multiple injectable launches add to Novo’s options, while blood and endocrine offer useful additional growth drivers. But the share price reaction shows this remains an evolution of the investment case, not a revolution. The valuation leaves scope for meaningful upside if management delivers, but investors are likely to need patience while they wait for proof points on execution, pipeline differentiation and competitive positioning.”
Notes to Editors
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