Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown:
“TUI investors may feel they need a holiday after today’s results, but it wasn’t all bad news. Geopolitical uncertainty is rarely good for the travel business, but the group’s Holiday Experiences division, which includes its differentiated cruise liners and hotels, put up a resilient performance. The more commoditised Markets & Airline arm swung from a €50 million profit to a €17 million loss, impacted by softer demand, high fuel prices and a competitive market. Despite the nosedive in earnings, it’s still all to play for with TUI typically making most of its money in the fourth quarter, which covers the peak summer trading period.
Here, there are signs of improving momentum, with Markets & Airlines booked revenue improving from -7% in May to -6%, Germany stable at -3%, and the UK picking up from -10% to -8%. Management pointed to conflict in the Middle East as a drag on demand, but a spell of ideal staycation weather may also have played a part. Bookings over the last four weeks are up 7%, as holidaymakers are holding out longer before making a reservation. The narrative around disciplined pricing, however, suggests that those waiting for a last-minute bargain may be a little disappointed. The weak quarter adds more pressure for a clean landing in the final stretch of the year, and while the runway still remains relatively wide, management is likely to be buckling up for a tricky approach.”
Notes to Editors
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