Share Research

TUI: trading in line for 2026, but 2027 visibility remains up in the air

TUI has narrowed its full-year profit guidance as late summer bookings improved, but visibility remains limited.
TUI - beats the seasonal lull to deliver a record Q1

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  • Full year underlying EBIT guidance narrowed to €1.2-1.3bn

  • Holiday Experiences bookings and prices holding up well for winter season

  • Markets + Airline booked revenue for winter down 7%

Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown:

“Robust demand for TUI-branded summer getaways and improved final-quarter booking trends in the Markets + Airline platform are set to see the group’s operating profit land in the middle of its previous guidance. TUI’s reputation for trusted, good-quality holidays is also standing it in good stead, especially when disruption risk makes customers value reassurance that they will be looked after if things go wrong. However, the more commoditised Markets + Airline division continues to lag prior periods and is seeing a later booking pattern.

Forecasts point to improved profitability next year at €1.5bn but getting there won’t be without challenges. Geopolitical uncertainty feeds into both higher fuel prices and consumer sentiment, while booked revenue for winter is down 7% in Markets + Airline. Prices are holding up across TUI’s offering, but occupancy is down in both Hotels & Resorts and Cruises. Having added capacity in these divisions, TUI now needs its differentiated proposition to pull in late demand for rooms and cabins without giving too much away on price.”


Notes to Editors

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Published: 22nd September 2026