Berenberg downgrades Johnson Matthey to 'hold', raises target price

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg cut their rating on Johnson Matthey to from 'buy' to 'hold' on Wednesday, saying their earlier bullish thesis had largely played out and that nearterm valuation upside now looked limited.

Berenberg said its call had been based on the stock's correlation with gold proxies and the prospect of margin gains in Johnson Matthey's clean air unit, both of which had supported shares yeartodate, even if the roughly £475m reduction in the sale price of its catalyst technologies unit had capped upside.

The German bank flagged several reasons for caution, noting that the appeal of the "long gold and PGMs trade" had faded and that risks to vehicle production- with most cars bought on credit - left it sceptical about further underlying earnings upgrades. Recent warnings from European OEMs, including Mercedes, and a derating among truckmakers such as PACCAR added to its concerns.

Higher oil prices, driven by Middle East conflict, could also accelerate the shift from internal combustion engines to EVs, Berenberg noted, weighing on clean air volumes. It also noted that valuation support had weakened as Umicore's cobaltrelated pullback left the stock trading at a roughly 1x forward enterprise value/underlying earnings premium to its peer group.

Berenberg, which raises its target price on the stock from 2,300p to 2,550p, added that estimate changes reflected lower assumed ICE sales and FX headwinds, partly offset by the recent stock consolidation. Berenberg also stated that FY27 EBIT consensus looked secure, though current metals prices might prompt trims to PGM Services forecasts for FY28.

Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com