Canaccord Genuity lowers Trainline to 'hold'

(Sharecast News) - Canaccord Genuity downgraded Trainline to 'hold' from 'buy' and cut its target price on the stock to 213p, warning that new regulatory proposals for Great British Railways pose a material threat to the group's longterm competitive position.

The Canadian bank said the Office of Rail and Road's draft Retail Code of Practice, published on 9 October, went "one regulatory step too far", particularly the government's rejection of economic parity between GBR and thirdparty retailers.

With GBR's retail operations set to be funded via a public service contract covering online, station and onboard sales, Canaccord argued the framework leaves scope for crosssubsidy and risks creating a structurally advantaged competitor in online rail retail.

Provisions on selfpreferencing were also weaker than expected, requiring GBR only to avoid "undue" advantage, while enforcement mechanisms were softened, with complaints directed to GBR first and no pause in decisions during referrals. Although access commitments were incrementally positive, the broker said the overall package increased competitive risk and would likely weigh on sentiment.

Canaccord highlighted further concerns around future fares regulation and commission levels, which remain the biggest open variable for Trainline's UK consumer business.

While no estimate changes were made, Canaccord lowered its terminal freecashflow yield assumption to around 9.5%, reflecting limited rerating potential under the new regulatory landscape.

Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com