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(Sharecast News) - RBC Capital Markets upgraded Atalaya Mining Copper on Monday to 'outperform' from 'sector perform' and lifted the price target to 1,100p from 1,000p following a "strong" second-quarter update and what it views as a "material political" shift in favour of Touro permit approval.
The bank said Atalaya's Q2 production update showed strong operating results and good cost control, after heavy rainfall caused a weak start to the year. This, coupled with the equity raise in January, sees net cash compound to 340m at Q2 end, above RBC's capex estimate of 320m for Touro and company guidance of 300m.
"We forecast positive net cash through peak capex in 2027, even if spot prices fall 20%. Should Atalaya wish to preserve additional financial flexibility, we think there is meaningful headroom to layer-in project debt facilities, an option we would expect to be formalised at FID," said RBC.
RBC also noted that the political environment has shifted materially in Touro's favour recently.
"The High Court of Justice of Galicia voided the 2020 negative environmental ruling, senior Xunta officials have made publicly supportive parliamentary statements, and ATYM believes that the DIA [environmental impact statement] is now 'under preparation'," it said.
"We believe sufficient political will exists for the Xunta to advance the DIA given the launch of a new mining rights tender in Galicia and the incentive to bank an economic win ahead of regional elections in May 2027."
RBC's base case assumes receipt of the permit in the third quarter of this year.
"The 25 July national holiday and parliamentary recess provides a 'soft deadline', if the DIA is not issued before then, the next realistic window moves to September," it added.
RBC also said the stock's valuation is compelling. It noted that Atalaya shares have underperformed the FTSE 350 Metals & Mining index by 20% year-to-date and the valuation spread versus Chilean copper miner Antofagasta has also widened back to 40%, near its widest level since initiation.
"At spot, Atalaya trades at 0.4x P/NAV and 3.1x 2026e EV/EBITDA, a discount to intermediate copper peers of 0.7x P/NAV and 5.5x 2026e EV/EBITDA," RBC said.
At 1127 BST, the shares were up 1.8% at 811.50p.