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William Hill - exceptional sports results boost margins

Nicholas Hyett | 8 May 2018 | A A A
William Hill - exceptional sports results boost margins

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William Hill saw underlying revenue rise 3% in the first quarter, as a strong performance on Online and in the US more than offset a weaker UK high street. Gross win margins improved across all divisions, thanks to an unprecedented run of bookmaker friendly results.

The shares rose 0.8% in early trading.

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Our View

William Hill's biggest problem in recent years has been a spluttering online division. That's not the case anymore.

Extra developers have given the app a facelift, and a revamped marketing campaign, plus products like #YourOdds, have breathed new life into the brand. Online staking is up strongly and a firm hand on costs means profits are hitting a gallop.

The online changes are part of the wider goal to recruit more 'recreational' clients. These punters typically put money on at poor odds in return for a bit of a thrill.

Unfortunately, Fixed Odds Betting Terminals, not usually the recreational punter's choice, still contribute around 29% of group revenues. Calls for a clampdown on these machines are getting louder, and the result of a government review is expected imminently.

A cut to the current '£100 a spin' cap is as much of a sure thing as anything in gambling can be. Despite industry protestations that a severe cut would put jobs at risk and only shift the problem online, a limit of £2 is still on the cards.

When it comes to regulation, the US makes for an interesting bright spot at the moment. At present sports betting is legal in only a handful of states, but with the Supreme Court currently examining the laws, the world's largest economy could be on the verge of becoming far more hospitable to bookies.

William Hill is gearing itself up to compete if gambling becomes more widespread. Growth is accelerating, although from a very low base, and success on the other side of the pond would be a big prize.

It's worth bearing in mind though that the last time William Hill rolled the dice on international expansion it lost. The Australian business has now been sold, but had been a source of repeated downgrades in recent years. Having cost the group something in the region of £500m, the group will be glad to see the back of it, even at a sale price of a little over £170m.

For the time being, the shares trade on 11 times expected earnings, and offer a prospective yield of 4.8%. Whether that's a long shot or not will depend on which way the regulators fall on both sides of the Atlantic.

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First Quarter Trading Update

Online saw revenues rise 12%, despite an 8% fall in amounts wagered in the Sportsbook. That reflects a gross win margin of 8.8%, up 1.3 percentage points, following favourable results in football and horseracing.

Online gaming revenue rose 8%, supported by an increase in active customers and improved cross-selling. Online customer numbers rose 10%.

The UK high street also benefitted from the run of supportive sports results, with gross win margin in Retail rising 0.8 percentage points to 18.8%. However, net revenue in the division was down 4%, with the number of shops down 1% as well. Wagering was impacted by the cancellation of 15% of UK and Irish horseracing fixtures due to weather conditions.

In shop Self-Service Betting Terminals (SSBTs) now account for 14% of total Retail Sports bets.

In the US, amounts wagered were up 31% in dollar terms, with net revenue up 62% as gross win margins improved. Basketball, Ice Hockey and in play tennis betting drove the increased wagering. Mobile now accounts for 64% of total wagering in the region.

The group continues to wait on the outcome of the UK Triennial Review of fixed odd betting terminals and the Supreme Court's decision on US sports betting legislation.

The disposal of the Australian business completed on the 23 April, raising A$313.7m.

William Hill expect full year results in line with market expectations, assuming normalised gross win margins in the remainder of the year.

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Unless otherwise stated estimates, including prospective yields, are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by Thomson Reuters. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Yields are variable and not guaranteed. Investments rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss.

This article is not advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. No view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment. This article has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is considered a marketing communication. Non-independent research is not subject to FCA rules prohibiting dealing ahead of research, however HL has put controls in place (including dealing restrictions, physical and information barriers) to manage potential conflicts of interest presented by such dealing. Please see our full non-independent research for more information.