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Next week on the stock market

What to expect from a selection of FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and selected other companies reporting next week.

Important notes

This article isn’t personal advice. If you’re not sure whether an investment is right for you please seek advice. If you choose to invest the value of your investment will rise and fall, so you could get back less than you put in.

  • PayPal will reveal whether it’s been able to improve the profitability of customer transactions
  • We’ll see how HSBC has been impacted by sluggish growth in Asia
  • BP profits expected to rise as it transitions to renewables

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Among those currently scheduled to release results next week:

Activision Blizzard* Q2 Results
Ascential Half Year Results
Heineken* Half Year Results
HSBC* Half Year Results
Pearson* Half Year Results
RHI Magnesita NV Half Year Results
Spectris Half Year Results
XP Power Half Year Results
BP* Q2 Results
Capital & Counties Properties Half Year Results
Coats Group Half Year Results
Direct Line* Half Year Results
Domino's Pizza Half Year Results
Elementis Half Year Results
Fresnillo Half Year Results
Greggs* Half Year Results
Keller Half Year Results
Rotork Half Year Results
Sage Q3 Results
Synthomer Half Year Results
Travis Perkins Half Year Results
PayPal* Q2 Results
Virgin Money UK Q3 Results
Endeavour Mining Q2 Results
Ferrexpo Half Year Results
Hill & Smith Holding Half Year Results
Hiscox Half Year Results
IP Group Half Year Results
Morgan Sindall Group Half Year Results
Taylor Wimpey* Half Year Results
Alibaba* Q1 Results
Centamin Half Year Results
ConvaTec Group Half Year Results
EVRAZ Half Year Results
Glencore* Half Year Results
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Half Year Results
Meggitt Half Year Results
Mondi Half Year Results
Morgan Sindall Half Year Results
Next* Half Year Results
Novo Nordisk* Q2 Results
Pantheon International Full Year Results
Rolls-Royce* Half Year Results
Serco Half Year Results
Spirent Communications Half Year Results
Tritax Big Box* Half Year Results
Deutsche Post Half Year Results
Hargreaves Lansdown Full Year Results
London Stock Exchange Half Year Results
Pets at Home* Q1 Trading Statement
WPP* Half Year Results

*Events on which we will be updating investors.

PayPal – Laura Hoy, Equity Analyst

Payment volume growth is always a metric to watch when PayPal reports since this is the crux of the group’s business. The group’s expecting between 15% and 17% total payment volume growth this year, and it’s important PayPal hits this target. That’s slower than the group’s delivered in the past, but given the exponential growth seen during the pandemic, it’s nothing to sneeze at.

The slower rate of growth means squeezing more out of each customer will be PayPal’s focus. PayPal’s investing heavily in new services that it can upsell to existing customers. While they’re expensive to build out to begin with, they should become more profitable with every new customer that uses them. The group’s transaction expense rate, which will fall as these transactions become more profitable, has seen annual increases over the past three consecutive quarters. We’d like to see it come down, or at least plateau, this time around. Otherwise it could indicate a longer term trend that will put added pressure on margins.

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HSBC – Sophie Lund-Yates, Equity Analyst

Profits for HSBC have been underwhelming so far this year. Despite having large operations in Europe, sluggish growth in its biggest market, Asia, has meant pre-tax profits are expected to fall to $4.0bn down from $4.7bn in the first quarter.

The Chinese property market has a large part to play in this. As China’s property development stalls and house prices fall, the upcoming results will indicate the additional impact the sector has had on profits. As a reminder, last quarter HSBC absorbed a $160m charge for expected credit losses due to a slowdown in the Chinese property market.

HSBC have also signalled more share buybacks are unlikely for 2022 due to a weakening of its required capital position. Investors should not be anticipating a return of share buybacks until this issue is resolved.

A rising interest rate environment has benefitted HSBC. Net interest income rose to $7.0bn, compared to $6.5bn last year. While this remains beneficial, the worsening macroeconomic environment has reduced investment banking fees for many competitors. As such, HSBC should feel this squeeze too.

HSBC is also grappling with the proposed split of its western and eastern operations demanded by its largest shareholder Ping An Insurance Group. The hope is to unlock more value for shareholders, however, any material update from HSBC is unlikely in the upcoming results so investors shouldn’t hold their breath.

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BP – Laura Hoy, Equity Analyst

BP will continue to reap the reward of elevated oil prices in the second quarter with healthy profits expected this time round. BP has promised further share buybacks to the tune of $2.5bn in the second quarter, as they aim to return a portion of surplus cash flow to investors. Though no shareholder returns are guaranteed.

Capital expenditure in oil and gas is on the decline as BP marches forward with its transition to renewables. The recent Windfall Tax imposed by the UK government is still looming over the industry. But given that projects within the industry take years—or even decades—to set up, it should have little impact on the group’s investment plans. Still, any update from management on potential implications will be welcomed.

Aggressive spending on lower carbon assets means this will also be an area of focus for investors. These yet unproven projects could become a cash furnace to oil profits, so any update on BP’s aims to generate returns of 8-10% in this part of the business could move the needle.

BP’s exit from Russia will also be on investors minds, although the bulk of the impact has likely been priced in. We feel the group’s decision to sell-off Rosneft is the right one, but we don’t expect any eager buyers to emerge anytime soon. That means we’re expecting to see continuous write-downs as the value of this asset declines.

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Unless otherwise stated estimates are a consensus of analyst forecasts provided by Refinitiv. These estimates are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Past performance is not a guide to the future. Investments rise and fall in value so investors could make a loss.

This article is not advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. No view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment. This article has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is considered a marketing communication. Non-independent research is not subject to FCA rules prohibiting dealing ahead of research, however HL has put controls in place (including dealing restrictions, physical and information barriers) to manage potential conflicts of interest presented by such dealing. Please see our full non-independent research disclosure for more information.

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    Important notes

    This article isn’t personal advice. If you’re not sure whether an investment is right for you please seek advice. If you choose to invest the value of your investment will rise and fall, so you could get back less than you put in.

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