Commodity rocks - what’s happening to commodity prices?

Susannah: Hello and welcome to the Switch Your Money On podcast. I’m Susannah Streeter, the senior investment and markets analyst here at HL and as usual I am with Sarah Coles – the senior personal finance analyst. Sarah, you know it does seems like we’ve been downbeat for many, many months doesn’t it, what with painful inflation, fears about a shrinking economy and the geo-political fracture given that the war in Ukraine appears so entrenched. But there have been a few glimmers of good news in recent weeks – a few reasons to be cheerful. It looks like we might have escaped a recession – for now.

Sarah Coles: Yes, it looks like bars and pubs got a much-needed boost from the World Cup, because we didn’t let the unusual timing of the tournament keep us from watching it with our friends. And shoppers have also been committed to filling groaning festive tables. In terms of the quantities we picked up in the supermarket, sales were down slightly from last Christmas, but rising prices mean we had our first ever £12 billion Christmas, and we didn’t hold back on some of the fancier booze and nibbles in the run up to Christmas either. All of which means we managed to generate some growth at the end of the year.

Susannah Streeter: And we’ve seen the FTSE 100 flirt with record highs, with 2023 really starting with a bang for the index which seems to have been unloved for so long.

Sarah Coles: Yes, this doesn’t mean 2023 will be all sunshine and roses, especially given that fresh interest rate rises are looming. And while inflation may be slowing, prices are still rising way ahead of wages, making it harder for millions of us to make ends meet.

Susannah Streeter: And in Davos last week, where I was briefly at the start of the world economic forum conference, more of that later, world leaders expressed their concern about a looming recession for a third of the world’s economies. However, for quite a few industries there has been a bit of a January bounce as the domestic scene looked a teeny bit more positive and China loosened covid restrictions. Commodity stocks, like big mining companies, have climbed again, adding to big gains for last year, after prices for a whole range of raw materials and foodstuffs went sky high following the invasion of Ukraine.

Sarah Coles: And that’s the sector we are focusing on today in a podcast we are calling: Commodity rocks. We’re going to mine information about what investing in commodities means from a sustainable perspective with our ESG analyst Laura Hoy. Plus, Sophie Lund-Yates, our lead equity analyst, will be here to tell us about some of the companies she’s got her eye on in the sector.

Susannah Streeter: And we’ll be drilling down, see what we're doing here, into what changes in commodities prices mean for those who rely on them. We’ll be speaking to Gary Peters, who's a Director at Leengate Metals and The Metals Warehouse, a company that specialises in finishing aluminium and stainless steel supplies for a huge number of industries, and he knows just how difficult its been to work with endlessly changing commodity price rises. Gary, I imagine the volatility of these prices has caused its share of headaches over the past period.

Gary Peters: Yes absolutely, it’s the uncertainty of knowing what’s coming ahead which is causing the biggest amount of issues.

Sarah Coles: Well we’ll look forward to finding much more about that later in the podcast. And as usual Emma Wall – our head of investment analysis and research will be here – she’ll be chatting to Chris Korpan, Portfolio Manager of the Natural Resources Fund at JP Morgan Asset Management.

Susannah Streeter: But first let’s dig a bit deeper into what’s been going on in the sector. Last year commodities were riding high on a wave of soaring prices. If you look at 2022, they were the top performing asset class last year as the war in Ukraine pushed up the price of raw materials. Stuff like nickel, steel, crude oil, and gas, and particularly food stuffs like grains, as countries around the world isolated Russia via sanctions and disrupted trade. As waves of volatility hit financial markets it pushed up the price of the dollar, which can be seen as a safe haven in uncertain times. Plus, as those soaring prices pushed up inflation the Federal Reserve ramped up interest rates pushing the dollar up even further. Given that commodities tend to be priced in dollars, it has a profound impact on values.

Sarah Coles: However, the start of this year has looked very different. Inflation has fallen back, from its peak, and investors now expect the Federal Reserve to press pause on rate rises at some point in the next few months. This has been a boon for gold which is seen as a safe haven asset, so as warnings have come thick and fast about a looming recession, there was more interest in the precious metal. It’s a non-yielding asset, which means it doesn’t pay dividends or interest for example, so tends to do better at a time of lower interest rates given that environment reduces returns on other assets like government bonds. Silver has also edged up because in addition to being seen as a safe haven asset, it has such good conductivity that it’s also increasingly in demand for renewable infrastructure like solar panels.

Susannah Streeter: But at the same time some commodities haven’t been quite so robust. Gas prices have fallen back markedly to a level not seen since September 2021. This owes much to warmer weather across Europe, combined with some hefty stockpiles of LNG in China, which means fewer worries about supplies. Crude oil has also dipped back significantly from the scorchio highs of last year, but is settled above $80 dollars a barrel in the last week or so. It’s been a bit of a mixed bag for some metals prices with prospects shaken up by the conflicting signs coming from China. On the one hand, the easing of restrictions led to an expected upsurge in demand for iron ore and copper amid hopes it would herald a robust recovery for the Chinese economy, and promises of help for the fragile property sector also boosted expectations of increased demand. But the wildfire spread of covid infections across China has dampened down enthusiasm, adding to worries that a recovery will be held back.

Sarah Coles: This seems like a good time to bring in Laura Hoy, who can give a wider perspective about the issues at stake when looking at commodities from an environmental, social and governance perspective.

Susannah Streeter: Yes, climate change has muscled its way on to the agenda for just about every politician around the world, and there’s no denying that a push towards clean energy is underway. One industry that’s seeing a huge boom, thanks to our focus on cleaner energy, is mining. The technologies we’re counting on, solar and wind plants and electric vehicles, all require a lot more minerals than their fossil fuel counterparts. The average electric car needs six times more minerals than a petrol-powered alternative. But mining isn’t exactly known for being earth-friendly. So where do miners fit into a sustainable investment strategy? Laura, are miners out of bounds for sustainable investors?

Laura Hoy: It’s a bit of a grey area, because even though their products are being used to trim global emissions, the miners themselves can have quite a negative impact on the environment. That’s not to say investors, even environmentally-minded investors, should skip the sector entirely. We need resources like lithium and nickel to create batteries, and copper and aluminium are the backbone of building out an electricity network. Blacklisting the entire industry isn’t the answer, but I can’t stress enough how important it is to pick the right miner. That goes for sustainable investors and even those who rank environmental impact quite low on their list of priorities.

Susannah Streeter: What does that mean in practice?

Laura Hoy: Agree with it or not, climate change is a huge policy driver. That means regulators are only going to get tougher on polluting companies. We’re talking about investing in a trend towards clean energy, which has become a huge risk for oil and gas companies. What’s happening there is really a preview of what’s to come for miners. So, companies working on ways to moderate those risks now are in a much better position than those with their heads in the sand.

Susannah Streeter: Ok, so what should investors be looking for? A low carbon footprint?

Laura Hoy: That’s certainly part of it, most of the largest companies have to lay out a credible net zero plan regardless of the industry they’re in, and miners are no exception. They use a lot of fossil fuels within their operations, from powering the refining process to transporting materials, so trimming their own emissions should be a key priority. But actually, the biggest environmental risk from an investment standpoint is how they get rid of the waste they create. More than half of the businesses in the mining industry have experienced at least one incident regarding waste disposal. And it tends to centre around the maintenance of tailings dams. These are essentially huge pools of waste materials that have to be kept up. Leakage from tailings dams can have enormous environmental consequences, and they can be fatal and have long-lasting implications for local communities. Unfortunately, these dams are a necessary evil in the mining sector and the risks that come with them are really impossible to completely erase. But, companies that are transparent, with regular disclosures about their tailings recycling facilities, tend to have a lower risk of major incidents. That means doing regular safety checks and constantly improving their processes, and they're keeping up to date with industry best-practices.

Sarah Coles: Presumably, the more attention that’s paid to these types of environmental concerns, the better those processes become.

Laura Hoy: Absolutely. We’re already seeing promising work into how the waste in tailings can be repurposed into usable materials. This is true for other issues as well. Water use is another big concern for miners, particularly if they’re setting up shop in places where it’s scarce. That means investment in things like waterless mining technology, and even using saltwater, are key strategic initiatives that will pay off in the longer term. Just as we watched the tech revolution completely change the way companies operate, sustainability will become a turning point for who wins and loses in the long run.

Susannah Streeter: I suppose the big question is how do we weigh up sustainability and necessity? Take deep sea mining. On one hand it’s seen as a solution to rising demand for materials, but there’s been a lot of backlash regarding the environmental impact.

Laura Hoy: Yeah, you’re absolutely right. As the concentration of minerals on land shrinks, deep sea mining has been lauded as a solution to continue supporting the energy transition. But we don’t fully understand the impact to the undersea ecosystem and that’s a huge risk. In the short term, any companies banking on this method are facing a lot of uncertainty. This year the International Seabed Authority will publish regulatory framework which will outline how and where this type of mining will be permitted, if at all. If deep sea mining is given a green light, the key here will be understanding the impact and adjusting accordingly. Legal or not, it’s a practice that’s going to be under major scrutiny. The best-placed companies are those who are erring on the side of caution and investing in the necessary research and technology to reduce their impact and keep ahead of the curve when it comes to best practice.

Sarah Coles: Thanks Laura, there’s clearly an awful lot to consider on the ESG front. But what does all this mean for companies operating in the sector? Let’s bring in Sophie Lund-Yates, our lead equity analyst, who has been exploring the conditions for some listed companies in the sector now. Sophie, so let’s start with Gold, you have a gold producer for us, don’t you?

Sophie Lund-Yates: Yes, I’ve been looking at Barrick Gold, which as the name suggests, is in the business of digging up gold. It’s also a leading copper producer. Investing in precious metal, or commodity producers, is one way to gain exposure to a certain material, beyond physically investing in an underlying asset. One of the things that makes Barrick stand out compared to other precious metals companies is its focus on what’s known as Tier One mining assets. Tier One mining assets are those that produce over half a million ounces per year, and have 10 years of productive life remaining as a minimum. Tier one assets are also at the lower-end of the industry average when it comes to production costs. Like any commodity, there are ups and downs. At the moment, Barrick is feeling the impact of lower gold prices and volumes, following a peak during recent years. As we’ve just been discussing, gold is traditionally known as a “safe haven” asset, which means people often flock to it during turbulent times. For context, Barrick reported third quarter revenue of $2.5bn, down 11% year on year. Together with some higher costs, which are coming from increased spending on labour and energy, means profits are lower than they have been, although the group is still very profitable. The balance sheet is also in reasonable health, which is important for miners. Costs of maintenance, let alone development, are huge. Being able to weather inevitable downturns in prices is very important. Essentially, as a miner, Barrick will see profits and cash flow expand when gold prices are rising, and the reverse will happen when there’s a change in the tide. That’s outside the group’s control and Barrick has done all it can to strengthen its position. Strong financials and high grade assets means I think Barrick has a lot to offer, but keep in mind mining performance can change at short notice.

Susannah Streeter: Thanks Sophie, certainly an interesting angle. So, what other mining companies do you think are worth attention?

Sophie Lund-Yates: I’ve also been looking at Rio Tinto. Rio is responsible for producing metals and materials used in industrial activity, specifically iron ore, which makes up about two thirds of underlying cash profits these days. The price of iron ore has rebounded strongly since the lows seen at the end of last year, with a tonne of ore currently trading at $127. Because of the nature of what iron ore is used for, the price tends to do well when the economic outlook is brighter because it means more economic activity and development. Of course, the economic outlook is still very uncertain, but news of China reopening means for industrial-focussed stocks, there is some new optimism. Away from iron Ore, Rio is delving into metals that are important to global decarbonising efforts. The group already has exposure to aluminium and copper, both of which are integral to building things like solar panels, electric cars, and renewable power generation. Rio’s improved $3.3bn offer to buy the remaining stake in Canadian mining company Turquoise Hill, has been accepted too. This increased Rio's stake in what's expected to be one of the biggest copper mines in the world.

Certainly a lot going on at Rio, and a lot of potential areas for growth. Keep in mind, as always, there’s a risk of some ups and downs, particularly when we’re talking about such a specialist sector.

Susannah Streeter: And we can’t talk about commodity stocks without mentioning oil – who have you been looking at in this space?

Sophie Lund-Yates: I’ve been taking a deeper look at one of the world’s oil super majors, Exxon Mobil. Like its UK listed peers, the group is essentially reliant on the oil price, so in what has been a recurring theme today, the group’s performance is very cyclical. The oil price has been on quite the ride since the conflict in Ukraine began, like we were talking about at the beginning, but where there have been oil price highs, lows are all but guaranteed to come back round again. That’s why I’d say it’s important to consider oil companies with proven oil-generating assets rather than some more speculative, smaller oil companies. This is a very volatile industry so you need to be able to stomach those ups and downs. Exxon’s recent trading information suggests that performance is reasonably robust, but there is some downside risk as the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain. It’s also really important to keep in mind that the attitude towards oil majors is shifting and there’s a risk of increased windfall taxes which could dent sentiment, as well as profits. For now, the reality is that oil and gas is going to remain an integral part of energy production for a while yet, and for now Exxon seems well placed. Keep in mind that on a long-term view it’s important to monitor the growth and prevalence of renewables. There’s a current yield of 3.3%, and the crucial nature of the group’s product has helped it grow or hold the dividend for the last 20 financial years. Please remember no dividend is ever guaranteed and yields are variable.

Sarah Coles: Thanks for digging into the detail for us Sophie. Of course, while the commodities sector is enormous in its own right, it also has a huge influence on other sectors, who have been wrestling with volatile prices – especially manufacturing.

So let’s take a closer look at what it’s like being so dependent on commodities prices at the moment, by speaking to Gary Peters, who's a Director at Leengate Metals and The Metals Warehouse. So, hi Gary, can I get you to start by telling us a little bit about the business?

Gary Peters: Yeah. So the Leengate Group started trading in 1957 initially as an engineering business which now specializes in sheet fabrication with punching, folding, painting, welding and full assembly. We then have the stockholder business, which is a distributor of non-ferrous metals, mainly stainless steel and aluminium turning over 4,000 tons per year to major manufacturing and engineering companies in construction, automotive, and food and catering. Finally, we have the e-commerce site, which is called the metals warehouse, which benefits from being able to offer the full range of products and services within our group all online.

Susannah Streeter: So how have runaway commodity prices really had an impact on your business? You mentioned all of this uncertainty is quite a headache.

Gary Peters: Certainly over the last 12 months. The issue has been confidence in where the market's going to go. So, the biggest commodities that affect our business is nickel and aluminium. If we look at nickel, which is a key ingredient in stainless steel, it equates to approximately 80% of the cost. So, if we look at the three years prior to the pandemic, nickel fluctuated between $9,000 and $18,000 a ton, which back then seemed quite a fluctuation, but if we look at the last 12 months alone, it's fluctuated between $19,000 and over a hundred thousand dollars and actually resulted last March in the LME ceasing trade for several days and then reversed in billions of dollars of trade and resetting the market back at $50,000. But the catalyst was the ongoing atrocities in the Ukraine. Russia's the biggest exporter on the planet of nickel and raw aluminium. So, the sanctions and the threat of more sanctions were unfolding. The prices soared beyond all meaningful value and supply chain basically filled its boots as much as it could off the back of the pandemic where prices also spiked because global lockdowns caused huge shortages and stock gaps, traders weren't prepared to be caught short again. So as the dust settled from a supply chain perspective, the commodity prices have fallen back to levels that are more in line with supply and demand, but still trading at relatively high prices. Prices have actually fallen and the supply chain as a whole has been severely overstocked. So, at this moment in time, profit margins have sort of gone out of the window. Stock has been turned back into cash.

Susannah Streeter: So you've been forced then to reprice a lot more frequently. And how does that affect your business?

Gary Peters: It's made it a lot more difficult, mainly from a purchasing point of view. Historically we would look at pricing on a month-to-month basis but at the moment it's almost day to day with, with regular meetings, we're buying our stocks on a three to four month lead time. So, if the confidence isn't there that what we're buying today, we can make a return on by the time it arrives and you start to cut your cloth accordingly with what it is that you're buying and how much you're buying.

Susannah Streeter: So it's almost an about turn to what you face coming out of the pandemic with this surge in demand, now you're having to deal with falling demand. How is that having an impact on your business?

Gary Peters: The falling demand is meaning that the increase in costs and price and overheads just aren't being able to be passed on with stock holding, placing material three to four months in advance, turnover is always a priority because we can't have accumulating stocks, which has been an issue over the last few months anyway through the supply chain as a whole. And that's caused a fall back in prices as well as the whole supply chain has tried to de-stock. So, in terms of passing on costs at the moment, that's not really happening.

Sarah Coles: And presumably that's not the only cost pressure that you're dealing with at the moment. I mean, presumably there's things like energy that are also quite a pressure on you.

Gary Peters: Yes. So our stock holding side, we have our own fleet of vehicles. Obviously, the price of diesel and the overheads of delivering that material is extremely high, which has been the case for several years. The engineering business is very intensive on gas and electricity, which again is having a huge impact on our overheads. We've tried to give our staff cost of living increases, but with the price of inflation going so high, it's hard to keep on top of that.

Sarah Coles: One of the things you mentioned was that clearly the business has a long history, is this one of the most turbulent times you've come across or has the business weathered this sort of thing before?

Gary Peters: I mean, I think the last three to four years with Brexit, the pandemic and now the ongoing issues with Ukraine, I don't think we've ever experienced anything like what's happened in the last few years and trying to predict then what's gonna happen in the next few years is almost impossible.

Susannah Streeter: So you don't see things returning to business as usual anytime soon?

Gary Peters: I don't really know what business as usual now looks like. I think over the next few years, rather than trying to go back to a business as usual, I think it's trying to find a new normal, and with that new normal being a business that is sustainable and can adapt and can thrive to whatever landscape is ahead of us.

Sarah Coles: So, do you think because of what you've experienced over the last three years you might be even more resilient going forward?

Gary Peters: Yes, I think so. I think we'll have a business that will plan for the complete unknowns over what's happened in the last three years. And we'll always have a contingency plan in place, and we'll probably not speculate as much on stocks when we're confident that things are going well and maybe not run our stocks down so low when we think things aren't going to be so rosy. Cause the last three years has sort of proven that there is no predicting what's happening in the future. So, you've just got to run your business as you see fit.

Sarah Coles: Thanks Gary, you’ve clearly been through a turbulent time. I hope there’s more calm on the horizon. And with one eye on the future, we can bring in Emma Wall now, our head of investment analysis and research, who has been talking to Chris Korpan, Portfolio Manager of the Natural Resources Fund at JP Morgan Asset Management.

Emma Wall: Hi Chris.

Chris Korpan: Hi Emma.

Emma Wall: So, we are here today to talk about mining and metals and before we get started, I thought maybe you could just give us an overview of the different types of metals. When we're talking about investment, when we're talking about mining, what are we talking about?

Chris Korpan: I would put them into two different categories. The first would be industrial metals and the second would be precious metals. For industrial metals we like to think of companies involved in the production of iron ore, which is used in steel for urbanization, copper as well, which is of course key to the electrification of the global economy going forward. Other base metals as well. And also lithium. Lithium, of course, will see strong demand from car batteries with the rollout of electric vehicles. And then addition precious metals, so that would be metals such as gold, which is often a storage of value, and then platinum and group metals also have an industrial application, but also can be used for a store of wealth.

Emma Wall: That's quite interesting. So, I think for the uninitiated, they might hear precious metals and think you're just talking about jewellery, but you are saying actually there's a much wider application and therefore much wider demand for precious metals.

Chris Korpan: That's correct. But the markets for platinum, for example, wouldn't be as large as for gold.

Emma Wall: And then let's talk a bit about the drivers. I think particularly with gold you mentioned there it is perceived to be what they call a safe haven asset. So therefore, typically historically when there's been times of economic or market uncertainty, we have seen demand for gold increase and therefore the price of gold increase. And of course, there's no guarantees looking forward for the gold price, but we are beginning a year where many people are predicting that we're going to enter a recession, at the very least an economic downturn. So, is that influencing your expectations for gold?

Chris Korpan: Well, we typically use long-term forecasts when analysing gold and the companies we invest in. If we look at what happened last year, especially the beginning of 2022 through to I would say Q3, we did see some pressure on the gold price. And this would be mostly due to the strength of the dollar and also rising interest rates as we've seen from central banks globally. But of course, towards the later end of the year, notably in Q4 we saw a rise as maybe the pace of interest rates were gonna slow and also some dollar weakness.

Emma Wall: And so you say there, you don't do short-term forecasting because you are long-term investors. How do you then model the underlying prices of the metals that are so linked to the stocks, the mining stocks that you invest in? Are you thinking about five-year drivers? And then what are you looking for with those prices? Is it much more about sort of strategic shifts like, for example, the move towards electric vehicles?

Chris Korpan: So, our longer term forecasting for metals in general would be based off of incentive pricing to bring on a new mine and generate an appropriate level of return. And that would be the main driver of the long-term value for the stock. But in the shorter term, we typically mark to market or early year or more shorter-term estimates.

Emma Wall: Now let's have a talk about ESG, environmental, social and governance issues. Typically, people will think of mining as sort of old industry and therefore can score quite poorly on ESG issues. But as we talked about the top of this conversation, mining for lithium is absolutely essential for the electrification of automobiles to have those batteries within EVs. How do you consider ESG criteria when you are looking at the mining companies that you're looking to invest in?

Chris Korpan: You know, firstly we are actively managing the fund and we also engage with management teams to ensure that they're on the journey with us. You know, not just on a one two-year frame, but also longer term. You know, it's not just also environmental, which we do take seriously, but it's also on the social aspects and of course the governance, you know, making sure that the company's acting in the best interest of shareholders and also providing employment in areas that are often quite remote in the world and stable employment. So, it can actually have a benefit to local communities also.

Emma Wall: And are you seeing that demand for lithium? There's been a lot spoken about it. It's got a lot of headlines the demand for lithium because of quite how much is needed or therefore forecasting is needed if we are gonna all buy electric vehicles. Electric cars. Is that something that you've seen accelerate quite a lot in the last couple of years?

Chris Korpan: Yes, that's correct. We have seen a significant demand increase for lithium. It's still quite a small size market relative to iron ore for example, or copper. But if you look at many of the reports by the IEA, we do expect significant demand increases for metals involved in the energy transition.

Emma Wall: And how do you think about diversification within a mining fund? Because obviously you're exposed to one sector, but do you think about the different underlying metals that you're exposed to or commodities you're exposed to? Or are you looking at miners that have a kind of a diversified revenue stream? How do you build that diversified portfolio?

Chris Korpan: The fund is actually 50% energy, 50% mining, and so it is diversified across the different commodities that we invest in.

Emma Wall: Chris, thank you very much.

Chris Korpan: Great, thank you Emma.

Susannah Streeter: That was Emma Wall there talking to Chris Korpan, Portfolio Manager of the Natural Resources Fund at JP Morgan Asset Management. And please bear in mind that these are the views of the fund manager and are not individual stock recommendations. You are listening to Switch Your Money On from Hargreaves Lansdown. And now it’s time for the stat of the week. There were plenty of numbers being bandied around at Davos last week. The global economy is set to eek out a much slower pace of growth this year. I was there talking about the challenges ahead and meeting innovators and entrepreneurs, alongside the main forum of world leaders, and business bosses. It’s a bit like Dragon’s Den on a global scale with start-ups, entrepreneurs, and scale ups attending every event they can to try and attract investment to grow. All the prices are hiked up over the week, I only stayed briefly, but even so it was quite painful on my purse, and my number of the week comes from those price rises. I ordered a tonic water, no gin, and they charged me more than 12 Swiss francs – around a tenner!

Sarah: That’s outrageous, no wonder you didn’t want to hang around. Now I have to admit, I knew that stat was coming, so after the huge success of my hilarious joke last week I’ve found a booze-related one. Do you want to hear it.

Susannah Streeter: Go on.

Sarah Coles: Okay… so a man walks into a bar and asks for a sloe gin, and the bartender says ooooooookaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay. Sorry I’ll get my coat.

Susannah Streeter: That was worse than last week Sarah, honestly. I need a gin now.

Sarah Coles: My jokes usually have that effect on people.

Susannah Streeter: That’s all from us this time, but before we go, we need to remind you that this was recorded on 23 January 2023, and all information was correct at the time of recording.

Sarah Coles: Nothing in this podcast is personal advice – you should seek advice if you’re not sure what’s right for you. Investments rise and fall in value, so you could get back less than you invest. Past performance isn’t a guide to the future.

Susannah Streeter: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. No view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment.

Sarah Coles: And this hasn’t been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is considered a marketing communication.

Susannah Streeter: Non-independent research is not subject to FCA rules prohibiting dealing ahead of research, however, HL has put controls in place (including dealing restrictions, physical and information barriers) to manage potential conflicts of interest presented by such dealing.

Sarah Coles: You can see our full non-independent research disclosure on our website for more information. So, all that’s left is for me to thank our guests Laura, Sophie, Gary, Chris, Emma, and our producer Elizabeth Hotson.

Susannah Streeter: Thank you so much for listening. Goodbye.