Getting Under The Bonnet Of The Car Industry

Susannah: Hello, and welcome to Switch your Money On, from Hargreaves Lansdown. I'm Susannah Streeter, I'm the senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. And I'm here with Sarah Coles, our senior personal finance analyst. Well, she's not exactly in the broom cupboard studio with me - but is switched on and ready to roll from her own recording base - one day we will record this in the same room.

Sarah: Yes, we've just gone through another covid isolation in our family, so I'm probably best avoided at the moment. We've taken staying home to new levels recently, but when I do drive over to see my dad and stop to fill up at the pumps - it's eyewatering - just how high prices have gone - diesel in particular.

Susannah: And if like us, you were up for buying a new car - it's also been a bit of a shocker - waiting lists are so long. Of course, it's partly down to the computer chip shortage but it comes at a time when the industry is trying to accelerate sales of electric vehicles too.

Sarah: And the car industry is the focus of today's podcast in an episode we're calling - getting under the bonnet of the car industry.

In the driving seat with us will be Nigel Goodwin who's been in the business for 27 years and runs Carwise in Derby, Hi Nigel, it's been quite an interesting time in the business, hasn't it?

Nigel replies: We certainly haven't experienced anything like this, like the inflation or price rises on used cars in any of the time I've been involved in the motor trade. My business partner is actually older than me and he refers back to the Suez Canal problems back in the 70s when the oil prices went sky high.

Susannah: OK Nigel, thank you. Let's delve into why it's so similar to the 1970s a little bit later, really looking forward to speaking to you.

Sarah: We'll also chat to our lead equity analyst Sophie Lund-Yates, who's been delving into the prospects for auto-trader in an unusual car market, as well as some of the brands at the forefront of the electric vehicle revolution.

Susannah: And we'll hear from our head of investment analysis and research Emma Wall - who's been talking to Jeff Atherton, manager of the Man GLG Japan Core Alpha fund.

Sarah: And Susannah has put together some more impossible questions - this time about cars made in the UK - which I can't say I'm hugely optimistic I know much about. But before we get to the nuts and bolts of the car business, we'll start a bit closer to home, looking at the cost-of-living crisis - and more specifically the soaring rate of inflation.

Susannah: Yes, we already knew prices were hot, but they have risen yet again with the consumer price index measure of inflation up 5.5% in the year to January. The fact that there has been another rise didn't come as too much of a surprise given that in the US prices are galloping up by 7.5% - at a clip not seen since 1982. A perfect storm of the labour crunch, supply chain issues and a surge in the price of raw materials and commodities like oil, are sending prices higher.

Sarah: Yes, and transport is one of the major areas where we've seen prices soar. A major part of this has been the oil price rise, which has fed into prices at the pumps. Petrol is up 24.4% in a year, so filling up the car is now almost £16 more expensive than a year earlier. The oil price is feeding through into manufacturing and distribution costs that have seen rises across the board from pasta to patio furniture.

We've also seen second hand cars among the biggest rises, up 28.7% to January, driven up by a combination of factors, which start with just how difficult it has been to get your hands on a new car.

Susannah: Yes. What's driving prices up is the semiconductor chip shortages. Car manufacturers temporarily shut down at the start of the pandemic, and demand fell through the floor. Elsewhere, demand for electronics like phones and tablets boomed in lockdowns. The chips needed for these products are far more sophisticated, so have bigger profit margins, so chip manufacturers focused on making these chips instead. When car production started again, there was a major shortage. It would have taken months to meet these orders anyway, but because they wanted cheaper chips, there wasn't much incentive for chip makers to prioritise them. It means there are still huge delays in chips for car manufacturers - which means long delays at car factories.

Last year according to the society of motor manufacturers and traders - Car production in the UK fell to its lowest level since 1956, just under 860,000 new cars rolled off UK production lines, which is even fewer than in 2020, when the first wave of Covid and the associated lockdowns forced several factories to close.

There are hopes the shortages will ease, with new computer chip plants being built to try and keep up with demand but they won't come fully on line for a few years.

Meanwhile, there are warnings that high energy costs could also be another challenge for car makers this year.

Sarah: So, the shortage of new cars means buyers are turning instead to nearly new cars. They're joining the queues of people who decided to buy they own car when the pandemic persuaded them off public transport. And at the same time, there's a major supply shortage of new used cars too.

Part of the problem is that fewer cars being bought a year ago means fewer one-year old second-hand cars. Traders are also facing the fact that people with car leases drove less during lockdowns and have decided to extend their lease for another year. Plus, of course, with few people buying new cars there are fewer trade-ins too.

As a result, there has been a surge in prices and a fall in sales of used cars in the last quarter of the 2021.

Susannah: Demand for used electric cars is surging though, and battery vehicles are selling like hot cakes. Last year there were more than 40 thousand used EVs changed hands, up almost 120%

The proposed ban on the sale of diesel and petrol cars is prompting drivers to switch to electric cars at record rates.

It may also have been prompted by new rules for clean air zones in some towns and cities - like here in Bristol - from June this year drivers of older more polluting vehicles are being charged to enter the city centre.

Sarah: So, let's lift the bonnet on what all of this means for the car industry now with Nigel Goodwin from Carwise in Derby.

Sarah: So, Nigel, can you tell us a bit about your business?

Nigel: We set up 27 years ago and we're a used car dealer, and we service, MOT and repair cars. We've been trading for 27 years now and we've never experienced anything like it for shortage of used car supply, and as you've already said, because of the shortage in supply, prices have been increasing since lockdown, in the main, ended May/June last year. We've never been able to replenish our stocks to what we normally have. We normally run with between 25-40 used cars on our forecast and we're averaging about 10-12 at the moment because as soon as we get the cars in, we're selling them.

Sarah: Are you having to do anything different in order to track down stock?

Nigel: We're very active buying cars, we're very particular on the cars we buy. We use a couple of online auctions which are very good and then we source a lot of the cars privately, which is hard work, but we tend to go down that route because we find that the cars are a good quality. We get cars from people who are trading cars in, but interestingly that's become very difficult, people don't seem to want to trade in so easily as they used to. We buy cars for cash as well and we're having to travel far and wide. I mean I travel to Scotland, London, Wales, to buy cars now which we always have done, but we're noticing we're having to travel further afield.

Susannah: You say it's a situation we've not seen since the 1970s. This must be the talk of the trade at the moment, do you think that you could see some companies actually being forced to wind up because they just can't get their hands on enough cars?

Nigel: People I know are all short of stock, but they're trading well. Everybody seems to just be operating on less - they're still turning over cars but not having the full stock.

Sarah: So, on the demand side of things, are you finding that demand has boomed as well or is it the same demand for fewer cars?

Nigel: As you quite rightly pointed out, with Covid, it's really kickstarted our industry because of public transport - people scared to travel on trains and buses, so they started buying cars and that's when the springboard started to really happen. And, since then we've had this problem with stock, especially our sort of price level between about £5,000 and £25,000, and we noticed that certainly sub £6,000-£7,000 cars, sort of £4,000-£7,000 cars were really in demand. People just wanting something - a good quality car with a good history just to go to work in. And of course, we're paying more for cars now but the margins to be fair, seem to be higher. I really prefer to buy cars cheaply and sell them at a more competitive price but at the moment you just can't do that and sometimes we're looking at prices of cars and thinking 'crikey, that's ridiculous', a car we know we were paying £4,500 for it and selling it for £5,500 - £5,995 a year ago, that car is a £7,000 car.

Susannah: Yeah, there have been some reports that actually some used cars are going for more than they were when they were brand new. Have you seen that at all?

Nigel: Yeah certainly, more I would say in the top end of the market. Certainly, if you're looking at Range Rovers, Porsches, Maseratis, I've known customers who've got those type of cars and the dealers have been ringing them up and asking them to sell them. You know, they've had them for about 6 months and dealers are offering them the same money or more money and then, in turn, they're putting quite a margin on top of those which is greater than the actual new car price because of the shortages that you quite rightly say about the shortage of silicone chips and the precious metals that they're made out of, which is causing the shortage on new cars. I've just sold 2 cars last week - 1 customer was buying a high-end Range Rover Evoque and it had a year to a year and a half lead time on it, and they came to me and bought a BMW X1 with 42,000 miles just to tie them over because they couldn't wait for a year and a half and they needed a 4x4 - ours was about £14,500 so they just bought that just to tie them over. And, at the other extreme, there's a customer whose wife had ordered a Volkswagen Tiguan and there again, they wanted a lot of extras on it and they were having to wait over 12 months for it and they just came in and bought a Fiat Panda of us for £4,995 just because they needed a car and to keep going. So, we're getting sales like that now, so it's a really crazy market.

Susannah: What kind of interest are you seeing in used electric vehicles?

Nigel: We don't sell electric vehicles; I don't actually go out and buy them. To get involved in electric cars you do need quite a lot of specialist equipment. So, at the moment, electric cars, on the used car side, when you're not a main dealer is not really a very strong market for us at the moment. I'm not saying it won't be in 5-10 years' time. We have a lot of customers, they're not coming in and asking us 'oh you haven't got any used electric cars, Nigel. Can you get me this, that or the other?'. I mean, they are quite expensive and a lot of people buying electric cars on a PCP or lease deal, have it for 3 years, then change it, which is probably the way to go with electric cars as the batteries can be very expensive if you have to replace them.

Susannah: Do you think there's range anxiety as well, among your customers when it comes to considering whether to buy an electric vehicle?

Nigel: Yes totally. I mean, the infrastructure in the UK - we've got a lot to do to make it a feasible alternative, I personally think. I go to Cornwall a lot, probably 4 or 5 times a year, and it's over a 300-mile journey so I would never buy an electric car until I knew I could get at least 400 miles out of one and that's quite a long time off I think at the moment. Or even have decent charging points which are readily available and easily accessible, which we haven't really got at the moment. As soon as you get off the beaten track, you're finding it very difficult to charge a car and as you say, you're going to get range anxiety for sure.

Sarah: In terms of the repairs side of the business, have you had any of the same kind of supply issue or the same kind of demand you've bee have on the sales side?

Nigel: Not so much say brake pads, discs, things like that, it's more electric components -if you need an electric motor for a windscreen wiper motor or something along those lines then yes, we are having to wait. Usually, it used to be a day max, but now we could be waiting 3-4 days and even longer for certain parts which are electronically based parts. We've had, to get a couple of petrol sensors for a Ford Kuga the other day and they're actually on back order and we've had the customers cars just been at the garage for 3 weeks now.

Susannah: So, are you seeing a real rush of repairs, would you say, after that lull during lockdown?

Nigel: The whole of the repair industry has just gone ballistic really, so we're finding that in the workshop we used to have a 2- or 3-day lead time, that now has increased to 3-4 weeks - we've never experienced that before. We're lucky because we're pretty geared up for servicing here and we've got 10 loan cars which we use so if anybody comes in with a major problem - if the clutch goes or if they've got a problem with the engine, we can just say 'look, take the loan car and we'll get onto it as soon as we can', so at least we can keep our customer mobile which is important.

Susannah: Certainly is. Well, busy office, busy showroom and a busy car repair centre. Thank you so much Nigel, I really appreciate you joining us.

Nigel: No, pleasure's all mine, thanks for having me on.

Susannah: It sounds like there are lots of challenges in the market, but some real opportunities for business owners if you can wrestle with them. These trends have been making themselves felt across the sector, so let me bring in Sophie our senior equity analyst here at Hargreaves Lansdown Sophie - one of the companies you're looking at also has exposure to the second-hand car market, doesn't it?

Sophie: Hi Susannah. Yes, that's Auto Trader - the UK's largest online car sales platform. It's a digital marketplace where individuals, or more often, car dealerships can advertise and sell cars. That means Auto Trader doesn't hold any car stocks itself, and the ups and downs of car prices don't directly affect it. Instead, it acts as a huge tailwind for the dealerships that use Auto Trader for advertising revenue, pushing up average revenue per retailer takes some of the pressure off declining forecourt numbers. As a bit of context, for the half year Average revenue per retailer was £2,199 per month. Because Auto Trader is the biggest, it has significant pricing power with those dealerships. Really the biggest challenge to navigate from here is declining overall forecourt numbers. It has a lot of tools in its armoury, but a misfire on the strategy would be painful.

Susannah: Now Nigel talked a bit about the demand for second hand electric vehicles, but for a lot of the car manufacturers, the future relies on getting this right doesn't it?

Sophie: Yes, that's certainly the case for some companies, and of course, I have to talk about Tesla here. We all know it's famous for trying to lead the electric vehicle revolution. Those efforts aren't going too badly - fourth quarter revenue rose 65% to $17.7bn, above market expectations, reflecting a 71% increase in Automotive revenue to $16.0bn. Operating profits are also rising sharply because of increases in production, which plays into the operating leverage dynamics I've spoken about before. More cars rattling through expensive-to-set-up factories has an enormous benefit for margins. So this is where I diverge from some opinion - there's no doubt in my mind that electric vehicles will become the future, but for me there is a debate about how quickly this will happen - Nigel touched on the infrastructure and when we'll be ready for it, and the amount of market share Tesla will have when it does occur. There are other, traditional, car makers out there, pumping billions into electric vehicles, so I don't think it's a case of electric vehicle boom equalling a sales monopoly here. That said, Tesla's core business has enjoyed a period of technological superiority, with a great brand and perhaps most importantly a great investment story, which means expectations have risen, and meeting those will be no easy feat.

Susannah: Particularly with some other companies spending so big on electric vehicles. Which other firms have you been looking at in this regard?

Sophie: Take Volkswagen Group as a lead example here. I should mention this is a true conglomerate and is responsible for its namesake, as well as Audi, Porsche, Skoda, Bugatti, Bentley and others, so not just VW. The current strategy aims to have EVs equal half of all car sales by 2030, and that comes with a massive €52bn price tag. The target is of course admirable, but I think the timeframe suggests that the global market simply isn't looking at a total about-turn any time soon, which perhaps makes the likes of Volkswagen group a bit more attractive because all its eggs aren't all in the EV basket. That said, those that have a more bullish view on EVs would (and do!) disagree with me on that. For context, VWG delivered over 450,000 fully electric vehicles last year, almost double 2020, and this was just 5.1% on total deliveries. So, a really small part of the pie at the moment. There is a long way to go before the status quo changes.

Susannah: Thanks Sophie. Of course, another factor to watch in the EV world is that a surge in demand for metals used in the manufacturing of electric vehicles and they've really been are soaring in price.

Nickel, a major component in long-range electric engines, recently reached its highest price in ten years. Aluminium has also risen 13% since the start of the year and is close to reaching the last record set back in 2008. Supply just isn't keeping up with demand as the big bounce back after the depths of the pandemic continues, a problem made worse by the energy crisis and power rationing in China which has limited production. A typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car - lithium is one such mineral in high demand as is such a critical component in electric batteries, and raw materials rich in lithium, like spodumene, rose almost 500% between last January and January this year. This creates opportunities but also challenges for mining companies - increasing production is a capital-intensive business and the international energy agency is urging governments around the world to lay out their long-term commitments to renewables so that the industry has the confidence to invest.

Sarah: Yes, there's so many movement parts to the car industry. At this point I'd like to bring in Emma Wall, our head of investment research and analysis here at Hargreaves Lansdown. And she has been speaking to Jeff Atherton, manager of the Man GLG Japan Core Alpha fund.

Emma: Hi Jeff

Jeff: Hi Emma

Emma: So, we're here to day to talk about car manufacturers/autos. You're a specialist in Japan where there are a couple of household names when it comes to cars - what's the outlook for the sector and how are you feeling about it?

Jeff: Well, we're optimistic, it's our biggest weighting in the portfolio, in both absolute terms and relative to the overall market. So, there's a lot of uncertainty on the sector, obviously Tesla has been sitting on top of the whole industry for a number of years now and people wonder how the incumbents can cope but we think they've got a very bright future. There are a number of reasons for that, but I think the whole Japanese sector is very well placed.

Emma: The US is not Japan, but there is across the world, particularly in developed markets a cost-of-living crisis emerging. We saw US inflation figures last week out 7.5%, but the only sector within that CPI basket that hadn't seen price increases was new cars. Is that something you're seeing for those Japanese autos as well, and how do they overcome that cost-of-living headwind.

Jeff: Well, I think there's a couple of things. First of all, they're having a lot of supply chain difficulties, getting hold of semiconductors for example, or the cost of steel and things is going up. In fact, what they're finding is because there's a shortage of new cars because of these production difficulties, is they're not having to discount like they normally do, so that's helping them very much. Typically, if you go to the US, you get sort of $2,000-$3,000 off the sticker price. When you negotiate with the dealer and I think that's much lower now. The margins appear to be protected if you look at the latest results from Toyota and Honda for example, they were very good. And the second benefit they get is they've got very big finance arms, in terms of buying cars on lease, and when the used car is very strong, that gets them extra profits when they sell those leased cars on. So, condition at the moment, apart from getting hold of semiconductors are pretty good actually.

Emma: And you talked a little bit at the top there about Tesla and the threat that it is to incumbents. How much of that is encouraging product innovation, or indeed a product pivot for the likes of Toyota?

Jeff: I think the first thing is that the Japanese initially, they were behind in terms of what Tesla was doing. I think that they thought they couldn't make a profit on a pure EV. There's no doubt they were a bit slow. I think what they're doing, and the way we see it, there are 3 technologies that will probably co-exist for many years and possibly for many decades, and that's the pure electric vehicle as in a Tesla, you're also going to see hybrids and also hydrogen fuel cells, and I think the Japanese, we feel, are ahead in 2 of those. They're ahead in fuel cells and ahead in hybrids, and they've been behind in EV, but what we're seeing now is a big effort to catch up in EV. So, Toyota, Honda, Subaru - they're all launching their first EV this year, I think Nissan is going to be the first one off the rank very shortly. And I think the Japanese are working very hard on solid state batteries which will give the cars a much bigger range. So, yes, there's a huge amount going on and one of the reasons we're quite keen on the whole sector in Japan is it's probably one of Japan's finest industries historically. If you take the last few decades, they've been very strong in autos and they've been very strong in precision machinery and electronic components. These are very good companies; they've been battling for many decades. We think they've got what it takes to succeed.

Emma: And how much is regulation an opportunity or a headwind? I'm thinking in particular about things such as carbon intensity, pollution - in the UK, in London you have ultra-low emissions zones and they're rolling them out in other parts of the country as well. How do you, when you are forecasting for these stocks, take all of that into consideration?

Jeff: The regulations are different in each part of the world as well, which makes it more complicated. I think that Europe is probably the toughest place in terms of CO2 emissions, so it's probably tended to suit the Japanese particularly Toyota because they don't make so many big engines like the Germans do for example. So, the overall score for someone like Toyota in terms of CO2 is probably the lowest in Europe. If we move across to hybrid increasingly, that also will benefit them but yes, it's difficult. I think one of the interesting things we're looking at, at the moment, is to some extent we're seeing the real world collide with action against climate change and we can see that within the energy markets in Europe here which is causing some problems. And I think with autos you're going to see the same sort of thing because we can't move too quickly to pure EV, you know, we don't have enough electricity-generated capacity. So, we expect that there will be a slightly more pragmatic approach which will allow these different technologies some time to move together and then maybe eventually we get to a world where there are no internal combustion engines. But that could be many decades away.

Emma: it's not just fuel-type innovation that's exciting in the auto space though is it? There's talk of driverless cars, or at least AI assisting drivers. How do you begin to model that? I mean, it seems like space age stuff but actually it's arguably not that far out.

Jeff: Autonomous is something that again, perhaps the Japanese were a bit slow to see the real-world practicality of that. But they're now working quite hard, I think Honda's got the first one in Japan, for example. These kind of machines are turning into electronic boxes, they're becoming more like technology and less like a traditional auto and I think Tesla is obviously being valued as a tech stock, rather than as an auto stock and maybe that will be beneficial going forward to the names as they become more value-added in terms of electronics. I think the auto industry has a good set up in terms of keeping out competition because you have dealer networks and you have service centres, and you've got safety and an awful lot of things that are regulated and that tends to look after the incumbents to some extent. If you look at the last 35 years or so that I've been in the financial markets and you look at the auto players, they're pretty much the same ones that they were 35 years ago. The Koreans are a bit bigger, and the Americans are a bit smaller but then you've got Tesla which has got about 1% market share globally, but it's really the same players I think and the barriers to entry are quite high, so I think that does help.

Emma: And that is a really interesting final point because obviously, I introduced you as Japanese equities specialist, but the companies you're talking about here really are truly global, aren't they?

Jeff: It's one of Japan's great success stories over the last 30 or 40 years. The Japanese car market is pretty small and yes, if you take a company like Honda for example, the US market is critical to them. The other big market for them these days is China. These are global companies, they all kind of live or die by what happens around the world, not just Japan, which is really quite a small part of what they do these days.

Emma: Jeff, thank you very much.

Jeff: OK thank you.

Susannah: Emma Wall our head of investment research and analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown there, talking to Jeff Atherton, manager of the Man GLG Japan Core Alpha fund. Please bear in mind that these are the views of the fund manager and are not individual stock recommendations.

You're listening to Switch your money on from Hargreaves Lansdown.

Sarah: And finally, it's time for the quiz, and Susannah has been putting together some fiendishly hard questions about cars manufactured in the UK. As anyone who has ever been in a car with me will know, motoring isn't a great area of expertise, but I'm still setting my sights high and hoping to get one right this time round.

Susannah: We'll start with some exciting facts and figures. I've already mentioned that 2021 was the worst year for British car manufacture since 1956, with around a third fewer cars produced than pre-pandemic. However, the industry did manage to produce a record number of alternatively fuelled cars, but what percentage of cars made in the UK last year were electric and hybrid? Was it around one in ten, one in twenty or one in four?

Sarah: Well, it must be on the rise, if petrol and diesel cars are being phased out, so it can't be one in 20, so it's one of the others. You know what. I'm going to be optimistic and say one in four.

Susannah: Oh my goodness you're right. You're already equalling your best score after one question. So, let's hope you're on a roll. Next, we'll go to one of the greatest cars on film - the DeLorean - manufactured in Northern Ireland. The DMC-12 gained fame as Marty McFly's time machine in Back to the Future, before the company went out of business in 1982. Now it's due to make a comeback this year, under completely new owners, as an electric sports car. So far there are very few details about the new car, but if it was to live up to the reputation of the DMC, what would it have to offer as an optional extra? Would it be a flux capacitor, a video carphone or a gold-plated option?

Sarah: Now I know my 1980s classic films, so a flux capacitor is only really an option on Marty McFly's version. The gold-plated car sounds ridiculous, so I'll go for the video phone.

Susannah: No, I'm afraid not. It offered a gold-plated version and believe it or not, seven people actually put down a deposit on a gold DeLorean. But don't worry, you could still beat your top score.

Sticking with films, James Bond has driven a number of British makes - most famously the Aston Martin DB5, but what was the first car he drove - in Dr No? It was also a British manufacturer, but was it the Sunbeam Alpine, the Bentley Mark IV or the Lotus Esprit?

Sarah: I have no idea. I have a feeling that the Lotus was around in the 1970s, way after Dr No, but other than that, I have no idea. I'll say the Bentley.

Susannah: No, I'm sorry, it was the far less well-known Sunbeam Alpine. The story goes that it was such a low budget film that they had to borrow a car in Jamaica, and there weren't a lot of sports cars to choose from on the island.

OK, so specific cars seem to be giving you a problem, so we'll go back to industry figures. According to figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers, how many cars are there on UK roads? Is it 15 million, 25 million or 35 million?

Sarah: I'm sure it's more than 15 million, but other than that, I'm not sure. I'll go down the middle, and say 25 million.

Susannah: Oh no, I'm afraid it's just over 35 million. So close, to beating your score, but in the end it was 1 out of four. Maybe next time.

Sarah: One in four sounds similar to my record for passing driving tests, so I'm happy with that.

Susannah: Maybe if you do drive over to record in my broom cupboard, you'd better come by bus.

That's all from us this time, but before we go, we need to remind you that this was recorded on 21 February and Emma's interview was recorded 17 February, and all information was correct at the time of recording.

Sarah: Nothing in this podcast is personal advice - you should seek advice if you're not sure what's right for you. Investments rise and fall in value, so you could get back less than you invest. Past performance isn't a guide to the future.

Susannah: Yes, this is not advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. No view is given on the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view on any proposed investment.

Sarah: And, this hasn't been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is considered a marketing communication.

Susannah: Non-independent research is not subject to FCA rules prohibiting dealing ahead of research, however HL has put controls in place (including dealing restrictions, physical and information barriers) to manage potential conflicts of interest presented by such dealing.

Sarah: You can see our full non-independent research disclosure on our website for more information. So, all that's left is for me to thank our guests Nigel, Sophie, Emma and Jeff, and our producer Elizabeth Hotson.

Susannah: Thank you so much for listening. We'll be back again soon - so if you enjoyed this podcast please do let us know what you think, and do subscribe wherever you get your podcasts, so you get a fresh new episode in your inbox as soon as it's ready. Goodbye.