Next week on the stock market

Carnival’s first-quarter results will reveal whether the strong financial progress seen in 2023 has continued. Strong booking momentum seen in the final quarter last year means there’s not much expectation of any slippage. The three months to February is traditionally the cruise ship operator’s quietest period. So most of the heavy lifting required to meet the full-year underlying cash profit (EBITDA) guidance of around $5.6bn is likely still to be done over the remainder of the year.

Consensus forecasts expect EBITDA to land at a little over $0.8bn in the first quarter, so management will need to see further evidence of solid forward bookings to raise expectations for 2024, especially against a backdrop of rising fuel prices. Given the seasonality, we’re unlikely to see much movement in the company’s net debt pile which totalled $28.2bn at year-end. And for now, it’s doubtful that a return to the dividend list will be on the horizon.

Fevertree’s recent performance hasn’t given investors much to celebrate. We’ve already heard that full-year revenue came in below prior market expectations, rising by around 6% to £364.4mn, ignoring exchange rates. This was largely driven by a 24% uplift in US sales which more than offset a 1% decline in the UK. The company’s also flagged that trading across Europe remains challenging, which means the US will need to continue picking up the slack moving forward.

The group’s also hinted that underlying cash profits (EBITDA) will come in at around £30mn when full-year results are announced next week. That’s right at the bottom end of its previously lowered £30-36mn guidance. On the bright side, locked-in energy prices and improving efficiencies are adding weight to group expectations that cash profit margins can nearly double to around 15% in 2024. Any tweaks to this guidance next week will be a key driver of market sentiment.

Ocado Retail, half owned by M&S, has been in the papers lately thanks to a public spat about payments between the two companies. But for now, nothing has officially changed about the relationship. With that in mind, we’ll be looking out for business as usual in next week’s retail trading update.

Last year, the division saw revenue rise 7%, as higher prices offset a reduction in the number of items being bought. With grocery inflation tempering, we’re interested to see how performance has developed.

We’ll also have a keen eye on active customer numbers. These were up almost 6% last year, and are an important barometer for future demand.